Amabhethri okugcina amandla egridi azinzisa amagridi kagesi ngokugcina amandla engeziwe phakathi nesidingo esiphansi futhi awakhulule ngezikhathi eziphakeme kakhulu. Baxazulula ukungafani okuyisisekelo phakathi kokuthi amandla avuselelekayo enziwa nini nalapho ugesi udingeka ngempela.
Icala Lezomnotho Selivele Linqotshiwe
Ingxoxo emayelana namabhethri okugcina amandla egridi isisukile kokuthi "izosebenza?" ukuthi "singawahambisa ngokushesha kangakanani?" Igridi yomhlaba wonke-imakethe yesitoreji samabhethri esikalini ifinyelele ku-$10.69 billion ngo-2024 futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ku-$43.97 billion ngo-2030. Lokhu akukhona ukukhula okuqagelayo{5}}kwenzeka ngoba izibalo manje zithanda amabhethri kunezinye izindlela ezivamile.
I-Texas inikeza ubufakazi obucacile. Ngo-Agasti 2024, izintengo zamandla zaziyisilinganiso esingu-$160 nge-megawatt ngayinye-ngehora ngaphansi kuka-Agasti 2023, namabhethri anikele cishe ku-$750 wezigidi ekongeni kwemakethe. Lokhu kwenzeke emakethe engalawulwanga lapho kungekho khona iziqondiso zesimo sezulu{7}onjiniyela bakhe amabhethri ngoba nje enza inzuzo.
I-California ixoxa indaba efanayo. Umbuso udlule amagigawathi angu-10 omthamo webhethri ngo-April 2024, namabhethri manje amelela cishe ingxenye eyodwa{3}}yesihlanu yesidingo esiphakeme kugridi ye-CAISO. Ngo-Okthoba 7, 2024, amabhethri akhipha u-8.35 GW ngesikhathi sokushisa, ukuvimbela lokho obekuzodinga ukucisha ugesi eminyakeni embalwa edlule.
Ukwehla kwejika kwezindleko kwenza lokhu kwenzeke. Izindleko zebhethri ye-lithium-zehle ngo-90% kusukela ngo-2010 kuya ku-2023, okuzenza ziqhudelane nezitshalo eziphakeme kakhulu zegesi yemvelo isikhathi esifushane{5}}sokulondoloza. Izintengo zephekhi yebhethri zehle ngo-20% ngo-2024 kuphela zaya ku-$115 kuphela nge-kilowatt{10}}ngehora, eqhutshwa amandla okukhiqiza kanye nokwehla kwamanani amaminerali.
Ukusebenza Kwezobuchwepheshe Kudlula Obekulindele
Amabhethri okugcina amandla egridi awasewona ubuchwepheshe bokuhlola. I-Texas ikhiphe izingcingo zokonga i-zero ehlobo lika-2024 naphezu kokuhlangabezana nesidingo esicishe sifane sango-2023, lapho u-opharetha wegridi enza izingcingo ezinjalo eziyi-11. Umehluko bekungamagigawathi ama-4 womthamo webhethri omusha owafika ku-inthanethi phakathi kwaleyo minyaka.
Isikhathi sokuphendula sihlukanisa amabhethri kuzo zonke ezinye izisetshenziswa zegridi. Angakwazi ukujova noma amunce amandla ngama-millisecond, uma kuqhathaniswa nemizuzu engu-10-30 edingekayo ukuze izinjini zegesi zikhuphuke. Emakethe yezinsizakalo ezisizayo yase-Texas, amabhethri manje ahlinzeka ngezinsizakalo zokulawula ezingafika ku-80%, asusa amajeneretha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi angasabeli kangako.
Ukukhathazeka okuthembekile okuphakanyiswe abagxeki akwenzekanga esikalini. -Ukusebenza kahle kohambo lokuya nokubuya kumasistimu e-lithium{2}}edlula ngokuqhubekayo ama-85%, okusho ukulahlekelwa kwamandla angaphansi kuka-15% ngesikhathi sokushaja-imijikelezo yokukhipha. Phakathi nokuhlolwa komjikelezo owodwa wegridi-yesistimu yesikali, kukalwa ukuzungeza{8}}ukusebenza kahle kohambo lwamasistimu e-lithium{9}}i-ion ngokuvamile kufinyelela ku-75-80%, nokulahlekelwa okuhlukaniswa phakathi kwamabhethri ngokwawo kanye nezisetshenziswa zokuguqula amandla.
Imikhawulo yesikhathi ingokoqobo kodwa iyalawuleka. Amasistimu amanje e-lithium-ahamba phambili enkathini yokukhipha amahora angu-2-amahora angu-4, afaneleka kahle ukuvala isiqongo sakusihlwa lapho ilanga liwa futhi lifuna ama-spikes. Kuzinhlelo ezingaphansi kuka-40% ezivuselelekayo ezishintshayo,{7}}isitoreji sesikhathi esifushane kuphela esidingekayo; ekungeneni okungu-80%,-ubude besikhathi buyabalulekile. Izimakethe ziphendula ngokufanele{10}}amabhethri okugeleza kanye nobunye{11}}ubuchwepheshe besikhathi eside buvela ukuze buhambisane nokubusa kwe-lithium{12}}yesikhathi esifushane.
I-Safety Narrative Versus Reality
Yebo, umlilo webhethri wenzekile. Phakathi kuka-2017 no-2019 e-South Korea, izingozi zomlilo ezingu-28 ziholele ekuvalweni kwamayunithi okugcina amandla angu-522-okumela cishe u-35% wokufakwa ngaleso sikhathi. Lezi zigameko ziphoqe imboni ukuthi ivuthwe ngokushesha.
Izinhlelo zesimanje zokuphatha amabhethri zithuthukile ngenxa yokusabela. Ukuqapha izinga lokushisa,{1}}ukulinganisa kwezinga lamaseli, nama-algorithms okulawula ayinkimbinkimbi manje kuvimbela izimo ezibangela ukubaleka kokushisa. Amabhethri e-LFP (i-lithium iron phosphate), aya ngokuya ancanyelwa izinhlelo zokusebenza zegridi, anikeza ukuphepha okuphezulu nempilo yomjikelezo owandisiwe uma kuqhathaniswa namanye amakhemikhali e-lithium{3}}ion.
Ingozi yomlilo kufanele ihambisane nezimo ezihlukile. Izikhungo zegesi yemvelo ziyaqhuma. Izitshalo zamalahle zikhipha izinhlayiya ezibulala izinkulungwane ngonyaka. Amadamu amanzi ampompayo kwesinye isikhathi ahluleka ngendlela eyingozi. Bonke ubuchwepheshe bamandla buphethe izingozi-okubalulekile ukubuphatha bufinyelele emazingeni amukelekayo ngenkathi iletha inani.
Izinhlaka zokulawula ziqinisiwe. Amakhodi namazinga aqondene nendawo yokugcina izinto emile manje akhona, aziswa ukwehluleka kwangaphambi kwesikhathi. Ama-opharetha wegridi nabalawuli basebenzela ukugcina amakhodi nezindinganiso zihambisana nokusetshenziswa kobuchwepheshe, nakuba izinselele zisekhona njengoba ukuvela kobuchwepheshe kudlula ukuthuthukiswa kwamazinga.
Isivinini Sokuthunyelwa Njengenzuzo Yokuncintisana
Isivinini sokuphakelwa sibalulekile lapho isidingo segridi sikhula. Iphrojekthi entsha yelanga ingasebenza ngaphansi kwezinyanga eziyi-18, kuyilapho iphrojekthi yebhethri yegridi yokugcina amandla ithatha cishe izinyanga ezingama-20 ngokwesilinganiso. Qhathanisa lokhu neminyaka engu-5-7 edingekayo ezimbonini ezintsha zegesi noma iminyaka engu-10+ yezintambo ezintsha zokuthutha.
I-Texas ibonise ukuthi kwenzekani lapho ukungqubuzana kokulawula kwehla. Umbuso wakha amagigawathi angu-6.4 amandla amasha ebhethri ngo-2024, okungaphezu kokuphinda kabili imikhumbi yawo ekhona ngaphandle kokugunyazwa nguhulumeni. Izinqubo zokuxhumanisa ngokushesha kanye nemakethe enokuncintisana kwangempela kuqhube lokhu kwanda.
IJografi-ukuthunyelwa kokuxilonga kushintsha ukuhlelwa kwengqalasizinda. I-hydro pumped idinga i-topography ethile. Izimboni zegesi zidinga ukungena kwamapayipi. Amabhethri okugcina amandla egridi angafaka noma yikuphi lapho igridi iwadinga khona-iziteshi ezingaphansi zasemadolobheni, amapulazi omoya akude, noma iziqhingi ngaphandle kwezinye izinketho. Lokhu kuvumelana nezimo kunciphisa izindleko zokuthuthukiswa kokudlulisela futhi kunika amandla izixazululo ezisabalalisiwe.
Isizinda sokukhiqiza sisemhlabeni wonke futhi siyakhula. I-Asia Pacific ibambe u-46.6% wegridi yomhlaba wonke{2}}yesabelo semakethe yebhethri ngo-2024, enamandla okukhiqiza e-China, eNingizimu Korea, futhi ngokuya ngokuya eSoutheast Asia. Umthetho Wokuncishiswa Kokwehla kwamandla emali wase-US ukhuthaza ukukhiqizwa kwasekhaya, nakuba amaketanga amaningi okuhlinzeka ahlala engowamazwe ngamazwe.
Ukuhlanganisa Okuvuselelekayo: Ukusuka Enkingeni Kuya Kusixazululo
Amabhethri okugcina amandla egridi axazulula inkinga yesikhathi esivuselelekayo. I-Solar ikhiqiza emini enkulu lapho isidingo sisesilinganisweni. Umoya uvame ukuphakama ngobusuku obubodwa lapho ukusetshenziswa kuphansi. Isitoreji sesikali segridi-sibalulekile ukuze ulawule ukuhluka kwehora nokwesizini kokuphumayo kukagesi ovuselelekayo kuyilapho izibani zikhanya.
Ijika lase-California-umumo wokulayisha inetha usuku lonke njengoba ukukhiqizwa kwe-solar kuyehla nangaphezulu{1}kuke kwabonwa njengenhlekelele. Amabhethri manje ashintsha ukukhiqizwa kwelanga abe ngamahora asebusuku abaluleke kakhulu, okuvumela ukusetshenziswa kwelanga ukuthi kuqhubeke ngemva kokuba amahora osuku egcwele amandla avuselelekayo.
Inkinga yokunciphisa iyancipha. Ngaphambi kokubeka isitoreji, ama-grid opharetha ayevame ukukhokhela amapulazi omoya nawelanga ukuze avale phakathi{1}nezikhathi zesidingo esiphansi ngoba igridi yayingakwazi ukumunca amandla. Amabhethri esitoreji samandla egridi athwebula lokhu-kungaba-ukumosha amandla, kuthuthukise umnotho wephrojekthi nokusebenza kahle kwegridi kanyekanye.
{0}}Indawo ene-generation iyakhula ngesivinini. Ukumatanisa amabhethri nelanga noma umoya endaweni efanayo kwenza ukuxhumana kube lula, kunciphisa ukusetshenziswa komhlaba, futhi kukhulisa umthamo wokudlulisela. Isitoreji seSolar plus siyisisetshenziswa esivumelana nezimo kakhulu kumagridi, okuvumela opharetha besistimu ukuthi balethe ngokushesha amandla athengekayo lapho edingeka khona kakhulu.
I-Emerging Second Second-Umnotho Wempilo
Amabhethri e-EV asetshenzisiwe adala ukusakazwa kokunikezwa okuhambisanayo. Amabhethri e-EV ngokuvamile agcina umthamo ofika ku-80% uma engasafinyeleli izindinganiso zezimoto, futhi ngo-2030, amabhethri ezimotweni ezisebenza ngogesi angase akwazi ukuhlangabezana{3}}nesidingo sesitoreji sesikhathi esifushane emhlabeni wonke.
I-Element Energy isebenzisa okungenzeka kube yigridi yase-US enkulu{2}}ukufakwa kwesikali sesitoreji isebenzisa-amabhethri e-EV wesibili{4}}iphrojekthi engu-53 MWh eNtshonalanga Texas epulazini lomoya lase-Nexdera. Inkampani ibika ukonga kwezindleko okungu-30-50% uma kuqhathaniswa namabhethri amasha afakwe ngokugcwele.
Izinzuzo zomnotho eziyindilinga zidlulela ngale kwezindleko. Ukushintsha amabhethri kuzinhlelo zokusebenza zegridi ezingafuneki kangako kwandisa ukuphila kwazo okusebenzisekayo cishe iminyaka engu-6 ngaphambi kokuthi kusetshenziswe kabusha kudingeke. Lokhu kunciphisa umthelela wemvelo wokukhiqizwa kwebhethri futhi kubhekane nokukhathazeka mayelana nokuqina kwensiza.
Izinselelo zisalokhu zisezingeni. Abakhiqizi abahlukene be-EV basebenzisa amakhemikhali ahlukahlukene, amafomethi, nezinhlelo zokuphatha. Ukuhlunga, ukuhlola, nokupakisha kabusha amaseli asetshenzisiwe kwengeza izindleko zabasebenzi. Kodwa njengoba omunye uchwepheshe wemboni ephawulile, igridi{3}}isikali sokulondoloza amandla simele "ukubeka ihhashi elidala emadlelweni"{4}}Amabhethri e-EV akheke ngokweqile ngenxa yamaphethini athambile okuhamba ngebhayisikili esitoreji esimile.
Izithiyo Zezinsiza Zeqinisiwe
Indaba yokushoda kwe-lithium idinga ukubuyekezwa. I-United States iphethe amathani angu-1.8 wezigidi ze-lithium reserves, emele u-6% wezinqolobane zomhlaba. I-Chile, i-Australia, ne-Argentina ngokuhlangene zilawula amadiphozithi amakhulu kakhulu.
Ukuguquguquka kwentengo kuqhutshwa imakethe-, hhayi ukuhlinzekwa{1}}kuqhutshwa. Izintengo ze-lithium carbonate zenyuka ngo-2022-}2023 njengoba isidingo sikhuphuka, sase siwa ngo-2024 njengoba umkhiqizo omusha weza ku-inthanethi ngokushesha kunalokho obekulindelwe. Le phethini ye-boom-ijwayelekile yezimpahla ezihlangabezana nesidingo esisheshayo sokukhula kwezintengo ukuze kuvulwe izimayini ezintsha, ukuhlinzeka ngokweqile kube nemiphumela emifushane, bese ukukhula kuyakhula.
Ukuhlukahluka kwekhemistri kunciphisa ukuncika kunoma iyiphi into eyodwa. Amabhethri asuselwa ku-Lithium-ahole imakethe ngesabelo esingu-85% ngo-2024, kodwa amabhethri e-sodium-ion, insimbi{5}}nomoya, kanye namabhethri agelezayo athengiswa ngezinhlelo zokusebenza lapho ukuminyana kwamandla e-lithium{6}ion kungabalulekile khona. Amabhethri okugcina amandla egridi abekezelela amasistimu anzima, amakhulu angeke asebenze ezimotweni.
Izihibe zokugaya kabusha seziqala ukuvala. Amazinga okutholwa kwe-lithium, i-cobalt, ne-nickel evela kumabhethri agaywe kabusha ayaqhubeka nokuthuthuka njengoba imboni ikhula. Ukusebenzisa kabusha amabhethri e-EV asetshenzisiwe kungase kukhiqize inani elibalulekile futhi kuzuzise igridi-yemakethe yesikali, nakuba izinselele zobuchwepheshe nezokulawula zisele ekulinganisweni{3}}kwezinhlelo zokusebenza zempilo yesibili.
Ukwakheka Kwemakethe Imiphumela
Amamodeli obunikazi ayahluka ngendawo. Amasistimu aphethwe yi-Utility{1}ahole imakethe yomhlaba wonke ngo-2024, eqhutshwa isidingo sokuzinza kwegridi nezidingo zokulawula. Izinsiza zincamela ukulawula lezi zimpahla ukuze zilawule ukusebenza kwesistimu ngokuqondile futhi zithole imbuyiselo elawulwayo.
Ubunikazi benkampani yangaphandle{0}buyakhula lapho imithetho ibuvumela khona. Abakhiqizi bamandla abazimele bakha amabhethri, bathengise umthamo noma amasevisi ezinsizeni, futhi bathwebule imali engenayo yemakethe yomthengisi. Le modeli idlulisela ingcuphe yemali isuke ezinsizeni iye konjiniyela abakhethekile abangase babe sesimweni esingcono sokuthuthukisa imisebenzi.
Izindlela zesinxephezelo zinquma ukusebenza. Imakethe yase-Texas yamandla{1}kuphela ikhokha amabhethri nge-kilowatt-ngehora ngalinye alikhiphayo kanye namasevisi ahambisanayo. Imakethe yamandla yase-California inikeza izinkokhelo eziqinisekisiwe zokutholakala kanye nezinkokhelo zamandla zokulethwa kwangempela. Izakhiwo ezihlukene zigqugquzela ukuziphatha okuhlukile{5}}Amabhethri ase-Texas andisa ukuhamba ngamabhayisikili, amabhethri ase-California abeka phambili ukutholakala okuphezulu.
Izihluthulelo ezimbili zokugcina inzuzo yephrojekthi ukuhlala kwebhethri kanye nokwenza kahle kokuthunyelwa. Amaphrojekthi kufanele athole lapho ukuhluka kwentengo phakathi kwamahora wokushaja kanye nokukhishwa kuthethelela ukutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu. Ama-algorithms ayinkimbinkimbi abikezela ukusabalala kwentengo futhi andise inkokhiso-amaphethini okukhishwa ukuze kwandiswe imali engenayo.
I-Grid Stability Revolution
Ukulawula imvamisa kwake kwabuswa amajeneretha amakhulu ajikelezayo. Inertia yabo iqinise imvamisa yegridi njengoba umthwalo uguquguquka. Amabhethri ahlinzeka ngomsebenzi ofanayo ngokulawula ngogesi{2}}ngokushesha nangokunembe kakhudlwana. Kule ntwasahlobo e-Spain, ukucima okukhulu kwamahora{4}}okude kwenzeke ngokwengxenye ngenxa yokulawulwa kwamandla kagesi okungathembeki kumajeneretha avamile, okwenze abalawuli bagqamisa amathuba okuba amabhethri anikeze ukuzinza kwamandla kagesi.
Ikhono lokuqala elimnyama-lokuqalisa kabusha igridi ngemva kokucisha ngokuphelele{1}}kwakudingeka ngokwesiko izinhlobo ezithile zamajeneretha. Amasistimu ebhethri esimanje angenza lo msebenzi, anikeze enye indlela yemali engenayo kuyilapho ethuthukisa ukuqina. Inani laleli khono liye lacaca ngesikhathi sokumiswa kweqhwa kwe-Texas February 2021 kanye nokucisha okujikelezayo kwaseCalifornia eminyakeni edlule.
Ukushefa okuphezulu kunciphisa izindleko zengqalasizinda. Ngokugcina amandla ashibhile kanye nokushajwa ngesikhathi samahora abizayo, amabhethri okugcina amandla egridi angahlehlisa noma aqede isidingo sokwakha amandla esizukulwane esisha nezintambo zokudlulisela. Lokhu kudala ukonga{2}}okubanzi kwesistimu okweqa izindleko zesitoreji ngokwaso.
Ukuqina kudlulela ngale kwegridi yenqwaba. Phakathi nokucisha kukagesi, isitoreji sebhethri singanikeza amandla ayisipele abalulekile ezindaweni zokukhosela izimo eziphuthumayo, izibhedlela, amakhaya, namabhizinisi, anekhono lokushajwa kabusha kusetshenziswa i-solar ngisho noma ukucima kuthatha izinsuku ezimbalwa.
Okungalungile Abagxeki
"Amabhethri awakwazi ukunikeza amandla e-baseload." Lokhu kugxeka akuqondi kahle ukusebenza kwegridi. Amagridi esimanje awadingi i-baseload{2}}adinga izinsiza ezivumelana nezimo ezingasabela ngokushesha esidingweni esihlukahlukene. Nakuba amabhethri ethatha isikhundla esibuthakathaka ngempela sezitshalo zomjikelezo ezinkulu ezihlanganisiwe{4}ezishintshashintshayo ezingasebenza ngokuqhubekayo, asebenza kahle kakhulu ekuphakameni nasekulawuleni imisebenzi emele amahora anzima futhi abiza kakhulu ukusebenza.
"Zimba eqolo-ukugcina isikhathi eside." Okwamanje kuyiqiniso, kodwa akusebenzi ezinhlelweni eziningi. Amasistimu anokuvuselelwa okuguquguqukayo okungaphansi kuka-40% adinga kuphela-isitoreji sesikhathi esifushane, lapho amabhethri ehamba phambili ngokwezomnotho. Njengoba ukungena okuvuselelekayo kukhula, ubuchwepheshe obuhlukahlukene buzobhekana nobude besikhathi eside-kumabhethri okugeleza, i-hydrogen, umoya ocindezelweyo, noma i-geothermal ethuthukisiwe.
"Sizophelelwa i-lithium." Izinombolo azikusekeli lokhu. Izilinganiso zezinto ezingavuthiwe ziphakamisa ukuthi i-lithium ingamboza kuphela u-50% wesidingo sesitoreji sango-2030 uma sithembele ngokukhethekile kumakhemistri amanje-kodwa lokhu akubangeli ukuhlukahluka kwamakhemikhali, akukho ukugaywa kabusha, futhi akukho zimali ezifakwayo ezintsha, zonke ezintathu sezivele zenzeka.
"I-China ilawula i-supply chain, idala ubungozi bamaqhinga." Lokhu kunembile ngokwengxenye kodwa kuyashintsha. Ohulumeni baseNtshonalanga batshala izigidigidi ekukhiqizeni amabhethri asekhaya. Izimbangi zebhethri ezinkulu zaseMelika naseYurophu zabuyisela izifiso zabo ngo-2024 ngenxa yezinkinga zemali, kodwa lokhu kukhombisa izimo zemakethe ezingenzeki ngamasu.
Izindlela Zokusebenzisa
Ngezinsiza, i-matrix yesinqumo iqondile. Uma igridi yakho ihlangabezana neziqongo zansuku zonke noma zezinkathi ezithile zonyaka, idinga impendulo yemvamisa esheshayo kunalokho okuhlinzekwa ngamaturbines, noma idonsa kanzima ngokuncishiswa okuvuselelekayo, amabhethri angase aphume ipensela. Yenza ukuhlaziya okuningiliziwe kwezezimali okuqhathanisa imali yebhethri nezindleko zokusebenza ngokumelene nezinye zezinsizakalo zakho ezithile.
Abathuthukisi bephrojekthi kufanele bagxile endaweni nokusuka kuyo. Idatha yomlando ingahlonza izindawo kugridi ezinamaphrofayili athembisayo enzuzo yokugcina, ikakhulukazi izindawo ezinokuguquguquka kwentengo ephezulu kanye nokudluliswa okulinganiselwe. Vikela-izivumelwano zesikhathi eside ukuze wehlise ubungozi bomthengisi, ngaphandle uma unamandla okuhweba asezingeni eliphezulu.
Ukuguqulwa kwemithetho kungasheshisa ukuthunyelwa. Izinqubo zokuhlela zidinga ukucolisiswa ukuze kulinganiswe ngokunembile izindleko nezinzuzo zobuchwepheshe bokulondoloza, futhi imithetho iyahlukahluka ezifundeni zonkana idala i-patchwork ephoqa onjiniyela ukuthi benze ukuhlaziya okuhlukene emakethe ngayinye. Ukulinganisa izinqubo zokuxhumanisa nezindlela zokugunyazwa kwamandla kunganciphisa ukungqubuzana.
Ukukhetha ubuchwepheshe kuncike kuhlelo lokusebenza. I-Lithium-ion ibusa kakhulu ku-2-izidingo zesikhathi samahora angu-6, amabhethri agelezayo afanela izinhlelo zokusebenza zamahora angu-10+, kanye nobuchwepheshe obuvelayo obufana nesitoreji se-iron-air eqondiswe ngezikhathi ezithile. Qondanisa ikhemistri nomjikelezo wemisebenzi kunokuzenzakalela kunketho eyaziwa kakhulu.
Sibheke Phambili: 2025-2030
Ukuthunyelwa kuzoqhubeka ngesivinini. Ku-Net Zero Scenario, igridi efakiwe{1}}umthamo wesitoreji sebhethri sesikali kufanele unwebe ngokuphindwe ka-35 phakathi kuka-2022 no-2030 ukuya cishe ku-970 GW emhlabeni jikelele. Izindlela zamanje zokukhula ziphakamisa ukuthi lokhu okuhlosiwe kungafezeka, uma kufunwa ukuvelela.
Ukuhlukahluka kwendawo kuyaqhubeka. I-Texas kulindeleke ukuthi idlule i-California njenge-#1 yemakethe yesitoreji ngo-2025, kanti onjiniyela bahlela ukwakha u-7 GW wamandla amasha{4}}okukhuphuka ngo-54% kusukela ngo-2024. I-Arizona ilindele ukukhula okunamandla, okungeziwe kwesitoreji okungenzeka kunyuke ngo-375% ukuze kufinyelele ku-3.7 GW ngo-2025.
I-Chemistry evolution izokwandisa amacala okusetshenziswa. Amabhethri e-sodium-e-ion adayiswa ngokushesha e-China, anikeza izindleko eziphansi kanye nokubanda okungcono-kukusebenza kwesimo sezulu kune-lithium{3}}ion yezinhlelo zokusebenza lapho ukuminyana kwamandla kungabalulekile kangako. Amakhemikhali e-ayoni-nezinc{6}}e-bromine afinyelela esikalini sokubonisa{7}}sesitoreji sezinsuku eziningi.
Ukuhlanganiswa nobunye ubuchwepheshe kuzojula. Izimoto-eziya{2}}kumasistimu egridi zingahlanganisa izigidi zamabhethri e-EV zibe izimboni zamandla zangempela. Ngo-2030, amabhethri ezimotweni zikagesi angase akwazi ukuhlangabezana naso sonke-isidingo sesitoreji sesikhathi esifushane emhlabeni jikelele ngemoto-kuya{7}}kuzinhlelo zokusebenza zegridi, nakuba imithelela yempilo yebhethri isacwaningwa.
Ijika lezindleko alikaqedwa. Ukuthuthukiswa kokukhiqiza, ukushintshwa kwezinto zokwakha, nokuthuthukiswa kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka kufanele kuqhubekisele ukwehla kwezindleko okungu-20-40% ngo-2030. Lokhu kuzovula izinhlelo zokusebenza okwamanje onqenqemeni lokusebenza komnotho{4}}ama-microgrid asemaphandleni, amasistimu esiqhingi, kanye nesitoreji sesikhathi eside.
Ukwenza Isinqumo
Amabhethri okugcina amandla egridi ayasebenza. Ziyakwazi umnotho namuhla{1}}ezinhlelweni zezicelo zenani eliphezulu, zincintisana ngokushesha-namanani aphakathi, kanye nasendleleni yokubhekana cishe nazo zonke izidingo zesikhathi phakathi neminyaka eyishumi.
Umbuzo awukona ukuthi usebenzise isitoreji sebhethri-ukuthi inhlangano yakho ingakwazi ukukuhlanganisa ngokushesha kangakanani. Abahambisi bokuqala e-Texas naseCalifornia babonise ukuthi amasistimu aklanywe kahle aletha ukuthuthukiswa kokwethembeka kuyilapho enciphisa izindleko. Leyo nhlanganisela ayijwayelekile kwingqalasizinda.
Ukukhathazeka ngokuphepha kuyalawuleka ngobunjiniyela nokuphatha okufanele. Izithiyo zensiza azibophezeli kancane kunalokho okuvame ukukholelwa futhi ziyaqhubeka nokuxega njengoba amaketango okunikezwayo ekhula. Ubuchwepheshe busebenza njengoba bukhangisiwe uma busetshenziswe ngendlela efanele.
Kuma-opharetha wegridi, ukugcinwa kwebhethri kushintshile kusukela kusithembiso sesikhathi esizayo kuya esidingweni samanje. Ushintsho lwamandla luyakudinga, ezomnotho zithanda wona, futhi unyaka nonyaka wokulibaziseka kusho ukonga okubikezelwe kanye nokuthuthukiswa kokwethembeka.
imibuzo ejwayelekile ukubuzwa
Igridi{0}}isikala amasistimu ebhethri?
Amabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate ngokuvamile aletha ukushajwa okungu-2,000 kuya ku-5,000{4}}imijikelezo yokukhipha kuye ngamaphethini okusetshenziswa nokuphathwa. Emjikelezweni owodwa ngosuku, lokhu kuhumusha iminyaka engu-5-15 yokuphila kokusebenza ngaphambi kokuba umthamo wehliselwe ngaphansi kuka-80%. Amasistimu amaningi afaka phakathi amalungiselelo okushintsha amamojula ebhethri kuyilapho kugcinwa ibhalansi yesistimu, kunweba ubude besikhathi sesikhungo sibe iminyaka engu-20+ ngokuthuthukiswa kwezikhathi ezithile.
Kwenzekani lapho isitoreji sebhethri sivutha?
Amasistimu esimanje ahlanganisa izendlalelo eziningi zokuphepha. Amasistimu okulawula ukushisa avimbela ukushisa ngaphambi kokuba kufinyelele emazingeni ayingozi. Uma ukugijima okushisayo kuqala kumojula eyodwa, amasistimu okucindezela umlilo ayasebenza kuyilapho izithiyo zomzimba ziqukethe ukusakazeka. Imboni ifunde ezehlakalweni zakuqala-zokuqhuma kwase-Arizona 2019 okwalimaza izicishamlilo eziyisishiyagalombili kanye nokuqhuma kwe-Beijing 2021 okwabulala izicishamlilo ezimbili kwaholela ekubuyekezweni okukhulu kwephrothokholi yezokuphepha. Izinqubo ezingcono kakhulu zamanje zibandakanya ukungena komoya okuthuthukisiwe, amasistimu okuthola athuthukisiwe, nokuqeqeshwa kwezicishamlilo eziqondene nendawo yokugcina ibhethri.
Ingabe amabhethri angasiqeda ngempela isidingo sezitshalo eziphakeme kakhulu kwegesi?
Ngezikhathi eziphakeme-ezifushane, yebo. Izitshalo eziphakeme kakhulu zegesi zibhekene nengcindezi yezomnotho evela kumabhethri okugcina amandla egridi, anezinhlelo ze-lithium-ezivele ziqhudelana ngokwezomnotho ngezinkonzo ezihamba phambili ezimakethe ezifana ne-California. Kodwa-ke, amabhethri okwamanje alwa nemicimbi yobude besikhathi enwetshiwe-izikhathi ezipholile-zezinsuku eziningi noma amaza okushisa. Igridi ekhishwe ngokuphelele ikhabhoni cishe idinga amabhethri amahora-ubude obuphakeme kanye nezinye izixazululo ({8}}isitoreji sesikhathi eside, ukukhiqiza okuhlanzekile okuqinile, noma ukuguquguquka kwesidingo) emicimbini emide.
Anjani amabhethri-empilo yesibili e-EV uma eqhathaniswa namabhethri amasha okugcina igridi?
Izindleko ziyinzuzo eyinhloko-30-50% ephansi ngesisekelo esifakwe ngokugcwele. Umehluko wokusebenza uncike esimweni sokuqala sebhethri nezidingo zohlelo lokusebenza. Ukugcinwa kwegridi kubandakanya ukuhamba ngebhayisikili okuthambile kunokusebenzisa izimoto, okwenza amabhethri e-EV eyonakele afaneleke naphezu komthamo owehlisiwe. Izinselelo eziyinhloko yi-heterogeneity (abakhiqizi abahlukene namakhemistri), izindleko zokuhlola, nezakhiwo zewaranti. Omunye umhlaziyi uphawule ukuthi uma amabhethri e-EV ehlala iminyaka engu-20+ ezimotweni, amanani abalulekile ngeke atholakalele ukusetshenziswa kabusha kuze kube ngemva kuka-2040.
Imithombo Yedatha
Ucwaningo lwe-Grand View - Igridi{1}}Isikali Sombiko Wemakethe Yesitoreji Sebhethri 2024
Izinto Zamandla Athuthukile - Izinselele Eziyinhloko Zegridi{1}}I-Scale Lithium{2}}Isitoreji Samandla Ebhethri Le-Ion (2022)
I-US GAO - Utility-Isitoreji Samandla Esikali: Ubuchwepheshe Nezinselele (2023)
I-International Energy Agency - Igridi{1}}I-Scale Storage Analysis (2024)
Ukubuyekezwa Kwemvelo Ubuchwepheshe Obuhlanzekile - Ubuchwepheshe Bebhethri Begridi{1}}Isitoreji Samandla Esilinganisa (2025)
I-Canary Media - 2024 Iyabuyekezwa Unyaka Wesitoreji Samandla (Disemba 2024)
U-Wood Mackenzie - I-US Energy Storage Data Deployment (2024-2025)
I-University of Michigan Center for Sustainable Systems - I-US Grid Energy Storage Factsheet
I-RMI - Amabhethri: I-Workhorse Yegridi Ethengekayo, Ethembekile (Septhemba 2025)
Imibiko ehlukahlukene yezimboni kanye nokuhlaziywa kwezimakethe (2024-2025)