Amasistimu eyunithi yokulondoloza ibhethri agcina amandla kagesi ukuze asetshenziswe kamuva, ukuvala igebe phakathi kokuthi amandla akhiqizwa nini nalapho edingeka. Lezi zinhlelo seziphenduke ingqalasizinda ebalulekile njengoba imithombo yamandla avuselelekayo efana nelanga nomoya manje yenza ngaphezu kuka-40% wokuphehlwa kukagesi emhlabeni wonke, okudala ukungafani phakathi kokukhiqizwa nokufunwa.
Udaba Lwezomnotho Seluguqukile Ngokuyisisekelo
Impikiswano yezezimali yokugcinwa kwebhethri ishintshile kule minyaka eyishumi edlule. Izindleko zesistimu zehle zisuka ku-$2,571 nge-kilowatt-ngehora ngo-2010 zaya ku-$165/kWh ngo-2024-zehliswa ngo-93%. E-China, izindleko zephule isithiyo esingu-$100/kWh, ngamasistimu angu-4-amahora alinganiselwa ku-$85/kWh. Lokhu kwehla kwentengo okumangalisayo akuzange kwenzeke kancane kancane; Ngo-2024 uwodwa wehle ngo-40% unyaka nonyaka, okuyisibalo esincipha kakhulu selokhu kwaqala ukulandela umkhondo ngo-2017.
Lo mkhondo wezindleko uguqule ezomnotho. Isitoreji sebhethri manje siqhudelana ngokuqondile nezitshalo eziphakeme kakhulu zegesi yemvelo isikhathi esingafika emahoreni amane. Ukuhlaziya kwakamuva e-Germany kuthole insiza-isikali se-solar esibhangqwe nesitoreji sebhethri kubiza kancane ukwakha nokusebenza kunamandla alingana negesi{3}}ebaselwayo. I-California ibonisa lolu shintsho ngokwemibandela yangempela-amabhethri ahlangabezana ngokujwayelekile cishe nokungu-20% wesidingo esikhulu sakusihlwa, asusa ukukhiqizwa kwegesi obekuzodingeka eminyakeni emithathu nje edlule.
Amandla emali engenayo adlulela ngale kwe-arbitrage elula yamandla. Igridi-ama-opharetha ebhethri esikalini azuza ngokusakazwa okuningi: ukulawulwa kwamafrikhwensi, izimakethe zamanani, izinhlelo zokuphendula isidingo, ukuhlehliswa kokudlulisela, kanye nokuhweba kwamandla amakhulu. Isistimu{3}elungiselelwe kahle e-Texas ingajikeleza nsuku zonke, ikhokhise uma izintengo ze-wholesale zehla ngaphansi kuka-$20/MWh futhi ikhiphe ngezikhathi eziphakeme lapho izintengo zenyuka ngaphezu kuka-$100/MWh. Ezinye izikhungo ziqophe amanani okukhipha angaphezu kuka-$5,000/MWh ngesikhathi sezimo eziphuthumayo zegridi.
Abasebenzisi bezentengiselwano nabezimboni babona abashayeli bamanani abahlukene. Izindleko zesidingo esiphezulu zivame ukumela u-30-50% wezikweletu zikagesi ezikhungweni ezinkulu. Isistimu yebhethri enosayizi ofanele ingashefa lezi ziqongo, ikhiqize izikhathi zokukhokha zeminyaka engu-3-5 ngisho nangaphambi kokufaka inani lamandla ayisipele noma ukubamba iqhaza ezinhlelweni zokuphendula isidingo. Ikhredithi yentela yokutshalwa kwezimali engu-30% etholakala ngo-2032 iphinde isheshise ukubuyisela.
Ukuzinza Kwegridi Kudinga Izinsiza Ezisheshayo-zokuphendula
Amagridi kagesi asebenza ngaphakathi kwamabhendi amancane efrikhwensi-ngokuvamile angu-60 Hz eNyakatho Melika, ngokuchezuka okwamukelekayo okungu-±0.05 Hz kuphela ngaphansi kwezimo ezivamile. Izitshalo zamafutha ezinsalela zakudala zigcina imvamisa ngobuningi obuzungezayo kanye nababusi abasabela ezimeni zegridi. Njengoba lezi zitshalo zithatha umhlalaphansi, abaqhubi begridi babhekana nokushoda kwe-inertia.
Amasistimu okugcina ibhethri aphendula ngokushesha kakhulu kunanoma iyiphi enye insiza yegridi. Zishintsha ukusuka kokubekwe eceleni ziye ekukhishweni okugcwele ngaphansi kwesekhondi elilodwa, uma kuqhathaniswa nemizuzu engu-10-15 ye-gas turbine. Lesi sivinini sibalulekile ngesikhathi sezehlakalo eziphuthumayo. Uma ijeneretha enkulu ihamba ngokungaxhunyiwe ku-inthanethi, imvamisa iqala ukwehla ngokushesha. Uma iwela kude kakhulu, ukucisha ukulayisha okuzenzakalelayo kuqala ukucima okunqamula amakhasimende ukuvimbela ukugoqeka okuphelele kwegridi.
Izinga lale nselelo likhulu. I-Texas ithole izingcingo zokongiwa kwemvelo eziyi-11 ngo-2023, izimo lapho ukuhlinzekwa kuhlangabezana nesidingo. Phakathi nale micimbi, isitoreji sebhethri sinikeze ukuguquguquka kokuvimbela ukucisha. NgoFebhuwari 2024, izinhlelo zokugcina zaseTexas zabonisa irempu ecishe ibe ngu-1 GW ekukhishweni okuphuthumayo, iqinisa igridi ngesikhathi sezulu esibi kakhulu.
Igridi yaseCalifornia ixoxa indaba efanayo. I-12.5 GW yezwe yomthamo webhethri efakiwe manje isihlinzeka ngamasevisi abekade edinga ukunakekela izindawo zokuphotha{2}}zezitshalo zegesi ezisebenza ngaphansi komthamo, ezilungele ukukhuphuka. Isitoreji sebhethri kunciphisa lokhu kungasebenzi ngenkathi sinikeza impendulo yemvamisa ephezulu.
Amandla obuchwepheshe adlulela ngale kwempendulo ephuthumayo. Amasistimu ebhethri esimanje ahlinzeka ngobuchwepheshe be-inverter "yegridi{1}}ebenzayo", obusekela ngamandla amandla kagesi kanye nemvamisa kunokulandela igridi ngokungenzi lutho. Leli khono libaluleka njengoba izinsiza ezisekelwe ku-inverter-(ilanga, umoya, namabhethri) zihlanganisa amasheya amakhulu omthamo wokukhiqiza. Amabhethri akha igridi-angakwazi nokuqalisa kabusha izingxenye zegridi ngemva kokucisha{6}}isevisi ebizwa ngokuthi "i-black start" eyayidinga ngokuvamile amajeneretha kagesi ngamanzi noma idizili.
Ukuhlanganiswa Okuvuselelekayo Kudinga Isikhathi Samandla-Ukushintsha
Amaphethini okukhiqiza amandla elanga nomoya awavamile ukuhambisana nokusetshenziswayo. I-Solar ikhiqiza inani eliphakeme kakhulu phakathi nemini lapho isidingo sezentengiso siphezulu kodwa isidingo sokuhlala sisesilinganisweni. Ukukhiqizwa kwehlela kuqanda ngemva kokushona kwelanga, njengoba nje ukusetshenziswa kwezindlu kukhula ekuphekeni, ekushiseni, nasemisebenzini yakusihlwa. Amaphethini omoya ayahluka ngendawo kodwa ngokuvamile aphakama ngobusuku obubodwa lapho isidingo siphansi kakhulu.
Ngaphandle kwesitoreji, lokhu kungafani kudala izinkinga ezimbili: ukuncishiswa nokuhlehla. Abasebenzisa igridi banciphisa (ukumosha) amandla avuselelekayo lapho ukukhiqizwa kudlula isidingo kanye namandla okuthekelisa. I-California yehlise ama-megawatt ayizigidi ezingu-2.7-amahora okusetshenziswa{4}}esikali selanga ngo-2023-anele ukunika amandla cishe amakhaya angu-400,000 unyaka. Lokhu kuncishiswa kwenzeka naphezu kokuthi umbuso ungenisa amandla ezifundeni ezingomakhelwane ngezikhathi zakusihlwa.
Into ethi "ijika ledada" ibonisa inselele yokugibela. Njengoba ukukhiqizwa kwe-solar kwehla ntambama, abaqhubi begridi kumele bakhulise ngokushesha eminye imithombo yesizukulwane ukuze bahlangabezane nesidingo esikhulayo sakusihlwa. Lokhu kudala umqansa odinga izinsiza eziguqukayo. Izitshalo zokubeka isiqongo segesi ngokwesiko bezigcwalisa le ndima, kodwa kuyabiza ukuzisebenzisa futhi kuyinkinga yemvelo.
Isitoreji sebhethri sixazulula zombili izinkinga ngesikhathi esisodwa. Amasistimu ashaja phakathi{1}}nosuku oluphakeme lwama-solar, okunciphisa ukuncishiswa kuyilapho ehlinzeka ngemali engenayo kuma-solar opharetha. Ziphuma ngesikhathi seziqongo zakusihlwa, zinciphisa izimfuneko ze-ramping futhi zisuse ukukhiqizwa kwezinsalela. Imikhumbi yebhethri yase-California ibonisa le phethini nsuku zonke-isilinganiso sokulayishwa kwesilinganiso sakusihlwa esihlangatshezwa amabhethri esicishe siphindeke kabili kusukela ngo-2023 kuya ku-2024, sifinyelela ku-20% ngezikhathi ezijwayelekile.
Ubude besikhathi sokulondoloza obudingekayo buhluka ngokusetshenziswa kanye nengxube evuselelekayo. Amasistimu okusebenza-esikalo ngo-2024 enza isilinganiso samahora angu-2.4 obude, akhuphuke ngo-33% ukusuka emahoreni angu-1.8 ngo-2020. Lokhu kushintshela esikhathini eside kubonisa isidingo esikhulayo sokuvala izikhala ezinkulu phakathi kokukhiqizwa nokufunwa. Amaphrojekthi ahlanganisa i-solar kanye nesitoreji samahora angu-4 anganikeza amandla okuthunyelwayo alingisa izitshalo zamandla ezivamile, afanelekele izinkokhelo zamandla ezithuthukisa umnotho wephrojekthi.
Amaphethini ezindawo aveza ubudlelwano phakathi kokungena okuvuselelekayo nokusetshenziswa kwesitoreji. I-Texas yengeze u-4 GW womthamo webhethri ngo-2024, ecishe ifane nesengezo sase-California naphezu kweshumi leminyaka{3}}elide lesiqalo sase-California. Umoya waseTexas namandla elanga akhule aze adlula ama-GW angama-50, okwenza izinselele ezifanayo zokuhlanganisa iCalifornia ibhekane nazo eminyakeni edlule. Isakhiwo semakethe yezwe esingalawulwanga savumela ukusetshenziswa kwesitoreji esisheshayo{7}}amabhethri athole imali engenayo evela ku-arbitrage yamandla ngaphandle kokudinga igunya noma izivumelwano{8}}zesikhathi eside.
Ukwethembeka Nokuqina Sekuba Okubalulekile
Ukunqamuka kukagesi kubiza umnotho wase-US phakathi kwezigidigidi ezingu-$25-70 ngonyaka, ngokwezilinganiso zoMnyango Wezamandla. Ukuvama nobude besikhathi sokucisha kunyukile kule minyaka eyishumi edlule. Izehlakalo zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu-iziphepho, imililo yequbula, iziphepho zeqhwa{7}}zibangela ukucima kukagesi kwezinsuku eziningi okuthinta izigidi. Ngisho nokuphazamiseka okufushane kuphazamisa izikhungo zedatha, izibhedlela, izindawo zokukhiqiza, nengqalasizinda ebalulekile.
Isitoreji sebhethri sinikeza ukukhuthazela ezikalini eziningi. Ezisetshenziswa ngazinye, amasistimu anosayizi wamahora angu-4-8 angakwazi ukuvala ukuphazamiseka kwegridi okuningi ngesikhathi elinde ukuthi kuqale amajeneretha ayisipele noma amandla egridi abuyiselwe. Ngokungafani namajeneretha, amabhethri ashintsha ngokushesha ngaphandle kokuphazamiseka kuma-electronics abucayi. Azidingi ukulethwa kukaphethiloli, okuqeda ubungozi bokuthengwa kwempahla ngesikhathi sezinhlekelele.
Inani libala ngokwehlukile kuzo zonke izigaba. Izikhungo zedatha zilinganisela izindleko zesikhathi sokuphumula ngezinkulungwane zamadola ngomzuzu. Ukunqamuka okukodwa kungadala izinhlawulo zeleveli yesevisi, ukonakala kwesithunzi, kanye nokuxova kwamakhasimende. Amasistimu ebhethri alinganiswe ukulayisha okubalulekile (amaseva, ukupholisa, inethiwekhi) kanye nesikhathi sokushintshela kumajeneretha amele umshwalense ngokumelene nokulahlekelwa okuyinhlekelele.
Izikhungo zezempilo zibhekene-nezidingo zokuphepha zokuphila. Izibhedlela zigcina amajeneretha asekelayo kodwa zithembele kumasistimu e-UPS ukuvala igebe lesekhondi elingu-10-30 ngaphambi kokuba amajeneretha afinyelele isivinini sokusebenza. Ukufakwa okusha esikhundleni se-UPS evamile ngamasistimu amakhulu okulondoloza ibhethri anikeza isikhathi sokusebenza esandisiwe kuyilapho futhi ebamba iqhaza ezinhlelweni zokuphendula isidingo phakathi nokusebenza okuvamile okukhiqiza imali ngempahla ehlala ingenzi lutho.
Imisebenzi yokukhiqiza ibala izindleko zokucisha ngokukhiqiza okulahlekile, izinto ezilahliwe, nokulimala kwemishini. Isincibilikisi se-aluminium asikwazi ukuma futhi siqale kabusha ukusebenza ngokushesha{1}}insimbi iyaqina, edinga ukuhlanzwa okubanzi. Isikhungo sokwenziwa kwe-semiconductor ingase ilahle izigidi zamadola ama-wafers-enqubweni{4}}esuka ekuguquguqukeni okufushane kwamandla. Kulezi zinhlelo zokusebenza, isitoreji sebhethri sivumela ukutshalwa kwezimali ngokulahlekelwa okugwenyiwe kunokonga amandla.
Ukuqina{0}kwesikali somphakathi kumelela uhlelo lokusebenza oluvelayo. Ama-Microgrid ahlanganisa i-solar yendawo, isitoreji sebhethri, nemithwalo ebucayi ingaphuma kugridi eyinhloko ngesikhathi sokucima. Imiphakathi eminingi yase-California isebenzise lawa masistimu ngemva kokucinywa komlilo wequbula okuphindaphindiwe{3}}okuhlobene. Ngesikhathi sokusebenza okuvamile, i-microgrid inikeza izinsizakalo zegridi futhi yehlisa izindleko zikagesi. Ngesikhathi sezimo eziphuthumayo, igcina amandla ezikhungweni zomphakathi, iziteshi zomlilo, imitholampilo yezokwelapha, neziteshi zokumpompa amanzi.
Ukutholwa Kwedrayivu Yesakhiwo Semakethe Nokwesekwa Kwenqubomgomo
Indawo yokulawula isithuthukile ukuze ibone isitoreji sebhethri njengesigaba sempahla esihlukile. Ngaphambi kuka-2020, iziphathimandla eziningi zaziphatha isitoreji njengesizukulwane noma ukudlulisa, okudala ukungaqiniseki ngezigaba okuvimbela ukutshalwa kwezimali. I-Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order 841 idinga izimakethe zezitolo ezinkulu ukuze zivumele ukubamba iqhaza kwesitoreji kuzo zonke izimakethe ezisebenzayo. Lokhu kwavula amathuba emali engenayo yokulawula imvamisa, izindawo zokusebenza, nezimakethe zamandla.
Umthetho Wokuncishiswa Kokwehla Nokwehla kwamandla emali wango-2022 washintsha kakhulu ezomnotho zephrojekthi ngokwelula ikhredithi yentela yokutshala engu-30% kumasistimu okugcina azimele. Ngaphambilini, amabhethri abefaneleka ukuthola amakhredithi entela kuphela uma-akhiwe namaphrojekthi elanga. Lolu shintsho luvuse ukutshalwa kwezimali ezindaweni zamasu lapho isitoreji sasidingeka khona kodwa i-solar yayingekho kahle-iziteshi ezincane zasemadolobheni, izindawo zokuxhuma komoya ogwini lolwandle, nezindawo ezinezingqinamba zokudlulisela.
Izinqubomgomo zeleveli-ziyahlukahluka kakhulu ekusekeleni kwazo. I-California yagunyaza ukuthi izinsiza zithenge okuphokophelwe komthamo wesitoreji esithile, kudala imakethe eqinisekisiwe ebeka{2}}intuthuko yephrojekthi engcupheni. I-New York ibale ukuthi u-4 GW wesitoreji samahora-ayisishiyagalombili angabiza-ukuhlangabezana nezidingo zesistimu ngo-2035, ikakhulukazi endaweni yaseNew York City lapho izitshalo zefosili ziyeka ukusebenza. Lezi zindlela zokuthenga zinikeza isiqiniseko semali engenayo evumela ukuxhaswa kwephrojekthi.
Imininingwane yokuklama izimakethe ibaluleke kakhulu kwezomnotho zamaphrojekthi. Amandla e-Texas{1}}amanani entengo yokushoda kwemakethe kuphela avuza amanani{2}}angase anyukele ku-$5,000/MWh uma ukunikezwa kunzima. Lokhu kudala amathuba e-arbitrage angekho ezimakethe ezinomkhawulo wamanani. Uhlelo lwaseCalifornia lwe-Resource Adequacy luhlinzeka ngezinkokhelo zamandla zezinsiza ezithembekile, kuyilapho imakethe yamandla ye-PJM inikeza{7}}inkontileka yeminyaka eminingi eya phambili. Onjiniyela kufanele baqonde imithetho yemakethe yesifunda ukuze balungiselele usayizi wesistimu namasu okubhida.
Imigqa yesikhathi yokuxhumana imelela isithiyo esisebenzayo kwijubane lokuthunyelwa. Izifunda eziningi zase-US zibhekene nolayini bokuxhumanisa iminyaka engu-2-4 kumaphrojekthi amasha. Isitoreji sebhethri sinenzuzo lapha{10}}izikhathi ezimfushane zokwakha (izinyanga ezingu-6-12) uma kuqhathaniswa nelanga (izinyanga ezingu-12-18) noma umoya (izinyanga ezingu-18-24) zisho ukuthi uma uxhumano seluvunyelwe, amaphrojekthi eza ku-inthanethi ngokushesha. Abanye onjiniyela baphishekela isitoreji esizimele sodwa kumasayithi anamalungelo akhona okuxhumana, bagwema ukubambezeleka komugqa ngokuphelele.
Ukuthuthukiswa Kwezobuchwepheshe Kuqhubeka Ngokushesha
Amabhethri e-Lithium-ion abusa ukusetshenziswa kwamanje, athatha u-85% wegridi{2}}yescale market ngo-2024. Ngaphakathi kwe-lithium{4}}ion, okuthandwayo kwekhemistri kushintshe kakhulu. I-Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) ikhuphuke isuka ku-48% wesabelo semakethe ngo-2021 yaya ku-85% ngo-2024. Lolu shintsho lubonisa izinzuzo ze-LFP: izindleko eziphansi, impilo yomjikelezo omude (5,000-imijikelezo engu-10,000 uma kuqhathaniswa no-3,000-5,000 we-nickel-based staibility), nokuzinza kwe-nickel-based.
Ukuthuthukiswa kokuphepha kuhambisana noshintsho lwamakhemikhali. Amaseli e-LFP athambekele kancane ekubalekeni okushisayo{1}}ekuhlulekeni kokushisisa okwehlayo okubangela ukusha kwebhethri. Izinga lezehlakalo zemboni lehlile naphezu kokukhula okukhulu kwenani elithunyelwe. Izinga lokuhluleka kwe-2024 lehlele ezenzakalweni ezingu-0.03 nge-GW ngayinye efakiwe, ephansi kakhulu kusukela ukulandelela kwaqala ngo-2016. Amaphrojekthi amakhulu aqedile ukuhlolwa kokuphepha komlilo (UL9540A) okufaka amaseli ezimweni ezimbi kakhulu eziklanyelwe ukuqala imicimbi eshisayo. Yakha insimbi Yamandla{9}}amaseli omoya awazange akhele ngisho nangaphansi kwezimo ezingadala imililo ye-lithium{10}}eyomlilo.
Ngale kwe-lithium-ion, obunye ubuchwepheshe bukhomba izinhlelo zokusebenza ezithile. Amabhethri agelezayo asebenzisa ama-electrolyte awuketshezi aphonswa nge-reactor, amandla ahlukanisayo kanye nezilinganiso zamandla. Lokhu kubenza bathandeke-ubude besikhathi sokulondoloza-amasistimu aklanyelwe 8-amahora angu-100 okukhishwa. Ibhethri eligeleza le-vanadium redox elingu-175 MW / 700 MWh laqala ukusebenza ngo-2024. Amabhethri e-iron air athembisa ngisho nezindleko eziphansi zokufaka izicelo zokulondoloza isizini, ngokukhiqizwa kwefekthri ye-Form Energy's West Virginia.
Ukuthuthukiswa kokusebenza kuyaqhubeka ngaphezu kokwehliswa kwezindleko. Amasistimu okuphatha amabhethri esimanje asebenzisa umshini wokufunda ukuze kuthuthukiswe amasu okushaja/wokukhipha ngokususelwe kuzibikezelo zesimo sezulu, izibikezelo zentengo kagesi, namamodeli okonakaliswa. Ukuphatha okushisayo okuthuthukisiwe kunweba impilo yomjikelezo ngokugcina izinga lokushisa elilungile lokusebenza. Amasistimu ahlanganisiwe e-DC-anciphisa ukulahlekelwa kokuguqulelwa ngokuxhuma amabhethri ngokuqondile ku-solar array ku-DC voltage, aqede isigaba esisodwa se-inverter.
Ukuhlanganiswa kwesistimu kuthuthuke kakhulu. Ukufakwa kwangaphambi kwesikhathi kwebhethri kwakudinga ubunjiniyela bangokwezifiso kusayithi ngalinye. Izixazululo ezifakwe emabhokisini manje sezithunyelwa{2}}ngaphambili{3}}amarack ebhethri ahlanganisiwe futhi ahloliwe, amandla kagesi, ukuphathwa kwe-thermal, ukucisha umlilo, namasistimu okulawula konke agcinwe ezitsheni ezijwayelekile zokuthumela. Lokhu modularity kusheshisa ukuthunyelwa ngenkathi kunciphisa izindleko. Iziqukathi eziningi zixhuma ndawonye ukuze kukale umthamo, namasayithi asukela kwiziqukathi ezilodwa (1-3 MWh) kuya ekufakweni okukhulu okufana ne-Moss Landing (750 MW / 3,000 MWh).
Izinhlelo zokuphepha seziyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu. Ukufakwa kwesimanje kufaka phakathi izendlalelo eziningi:-i-cell fusing, imojuli{2}}ileveli yokuxhumana noma ukuhlukaniswa, i-rack-ama-circuit breaker, neziqukathi{4}}ezinqamukayo zezimo eziphuthumayo. Iziqapha zokutholwa kwegesi ze-hydrogen nemikhiqizo evuthayo. Amakhamera ashisayo ahlola amamojula ebhethri ngokuqhubekayo. Amasistimu okucindezela umlilo we-aerosol asebenza ngaphambi kokuba ukuphuma okushisayo kusakaze phakathi kwamamojula. Lezi zinyathelo zibhekana nokukhathazeka kwemboni nomphakathi mayelana nokusha kwamabhethri.
Isikali Sokusetshenziswa Sibonisa Inani Elifakazelwe
Umthamo wokugcina webhethri wase-US weqe u-26 GW ekupheleni kuka-2024, nomunye u-19.6 GW ohlelelwe u-2025. Lokhu kumelela ukukhula okungama-66% ngonyaka owodwa. Ipayipi lepayipi elingu-143 GW ukuya ku-2030 likhombisa ukuqhubeka nokukhula ngokushesha. Lezi akuzona izinombolo zokuqagela{11}onjiniyela banezivumelwano zokuxhumanisa, ukulawula isayithi, nezibopho zezimali zamaphrojekthi{12}aseduze.
Isisekelo esifakiwe siphendukela ekusetshenzisweni kwakamuva. Cishe u-70% wamandla wamanje wase-US afike ku-inthanethi eminyakeni emibili edlule. Lokhu kusho ukuthi amasistimu amaningi asesencane, awakaze abhekane nezinkinga ezinkulu, futhi afakazela imiqondo yokusebenza. Izinga lokusinda lamaphrojekthi agunyaziwe lidlula u-98%-amasistimu ambalwa kakhulu ahlulekile noma ahoxisiwe.
Osayizi bephrojekthi bakhule kakhulu. Ngo-2020, iphrojekthi enkulu kunazo zonke yase-US yayingama-40 MW. Ngo-2024, amaphrojekthi amaningi abe ngaphezu kwama-300 MW. Isikhungo se-Gemini Solar Plus Storage e-Nevada sihlanganisa amandla elanga angu-690 MW nesitoreji esingu-380 MW / 1,416 MWh ngaphansi kwesivumelwano sokuthenga ugesi seminyaka engama-25. Kulesi sikali, isitoreji sebhethri sifaneleka njengomthamo "wokulayisha phansi" izisebenzisi zegridi ezingathembela kuwo ekusebenzeni kwansuku zonke.
Ukugxilwa kwendawo kubonisa ukwesekwa kwenqubomgomo kanye nezimo zemakethe. I-California isingathe u-12.5 GW, Texas 8 GW-lezi zifunda ezimbili zenza u-78% womthamo wase-US. Kodwa ukusatshalaliswa kuyanda. IFlorida, i-Arizona, iNevada, neNew York zinamapayipi amakhulu. Ngisho nezifunda ezithembele kumalahle ngokwesiko{10}}zakha isitoreji{11}}i-Indiana, Kentucky, ne-West Virginia zinamaphrojekthi ngezigaba ezihlukahlukene.
Amaphethini okusetshenziswa komhlaba wonke ayahluka ngokwesifunda. I-Europe yengeze amandla angama-21 GWh ngo-2024, yafinyelela ku-61 GWh efakiwe, iJalimane ne-Italy ngayinye inikela cishe ngama-GWh ayi-6. I-China ibusa izinombolo eziphelele, ifaka umthamo olingana nomhlaba wonke uhlangene. I-Asia Pacific yabalelwa ku-46.6% wegridi yomhlaba wonke-yemakethe yesikali ngo-2024. Umkhakha wezamandla wase-Japan ukhulise umthamo ovuselelekayo ngaphezu kuka-30% eminyakeni emihlanu, okuholele ekwenyukeni okukhulu kwesidingo sesitoreji.
Imikhakha yezindawo zokuhlala neyokuhweba ibonisa amaphethini okutholwa okuhlukile. Ukufakwa kwendawo yokuhlala yase-US kuhlala kukuncane uma kuqhathaniswa nensizakalo-kodwa kukhula ngokushesha ezifundazweni ezinezindleko zikagesi eziphezulu, isikhathi-so{5}}sokusebenzisa amanani, noma ukucima njalo. Amasistimu ngokuvamile asukela ku-5-15 kWh, abhangqwe ne-solar ephezu kophahla ukuze asebenzise amandla kakhulu futhi anikeze amandla ayisipele. Ukufakwa kwezentengiselwano (30 kWh - 2,000 kWh) kugxile ekwehliseni inkokhiso efunwayo nokuthembeka, namanye amasayithi abamba iqhaza ezinhlelweni zokuphendula isidingo ukuze uthole imali eyengeziwe.
Amamodeli Ezezimali Afakazelwe Ukusebenza
Izindleko ezilinganisiwe zokugcinwa kwamandla-inani elincane elidingekayo ukuze kuphuke phakathi nokuphila kwesistimu{1}} seliqhudelana nezinsiza ezivamile. I-LCOE yesitoreji esisetshenziswayo{3}yehle yaya ku-$104/MWh ngo-2024, ukwehla ngo-33% kusukela ngo-2023. Ukuqagela kubonisa ukuthi i-LCOE ifinyelela ku-$53/MWh ngo-2035, cishe uhhafu wezindleko zamanje. Kula mazinga, isitoreji siqhudelana ngokwezomnotho nezitshalo eziphakeme kakhulu zegesi ngisho nangaphandle kokucabangela izindleko zekhabhoni noma izinzuzo zokuhlanganisa ezivuselelekayo.
Ukuxhaswa ngezimali kwephrojekthi sekukhule kakhulu. Amabhange amakhulu nabatshalizimali bezikhungo manje sebeyaqonda ubungozi bokugcinwa kwebhethri kanye nembuyiselo, bahlinzeke ngezimali zezikweletu ngemibandela ephusile. Lokhu kumelela ushintsho olukhulu ukusuka ku-2018-2020 lapho amaphrojekthi amaningi edinga uxhaso olubizayo lokulingana noma amashidi ebhalansi kanjiniyela. Ukutshalwa kwezimali ekugcinweni kwebhethri kudlule ku-$5 billion ngo-2022, cishe kathathu ngonyaka odlule.
Isihluthulelo sokuthola imali ukubikezelwa kwemali engenayo. Amaphrojekthi anezinkontileka-zesikhathi eside{2}}izinkokhelo zamandla, amakhredithi amandla avuselelekayo, izivumelwano zokuthenga amandla{3}}angavikela isikweletu sephrojekthi sezimali ngamanani enzalo angu-5-7%. Amaphrojekthi omthengisi ancike ekubambeni iqhaza kwemakethe yezitolo ezinkulu abhekana nezingqinamba eziphakeme kodwa angabhala phansi ngokusekelwe ezimweni zentengo ezilondolozayo. Iminyaka eminingana yedatha yokusebenza inikeze ababolekisi ukuzethemba ekusebenzeni kwesistimu namazinga okonakaliswa.
Kubasebenzisi bezentengiselwano nabezimboni, isiphakamiso senani sidlulela ngale kwezindleko zamandla. Izikhungo eziningi zisebenza ngaphansi kwentela ephazamisekayo enikeza amanani aphansi uma kushintshwa ukwamukela ukuncishiswa kwesevisi okungaba khona. Isitoreji sebhethri sibavumela ukuthi bathwebule lokhu kulondoloza ngenkathi begcina ukwethembeka ngamandla agciniwe phakathi nemicimbi yokunciphisa. Inhlanganisela inganciphisa izindleko zikagesi ngo-20-30% kuyilapho ithuthukisa ikhwalithi yamandla.
Umnotho wendawo yokuhlala uncike kakhulu emazingeni ezinsiza zendawo kanye nezinzuzo. Ezimakethe ezinesikhathi esiphezulu-so{2}}sokwehluka kwesilinganiso sokusetshenziswa ({3}}kukhuphuke{4}}kuzilinganiso zentengo ephakeme kakhulu ezedlula u-3:1), amasistimu esitoreji abhangqwe ne-solar angafinyelela izikhathi zokukhokha ngaphansi kweminyaka eyisikhombisa. Ikhredithi yentela yombuso engu-30% isheshisa ukubuyisela ngokuphawulekayo-isistimu engu-$15,000 ithola u-$4,500 wamakhredithi. Ezinye izinsiza zinikeza izaphulelo ezengeziwe noma izikhuthazo zokusebenza ezithuthukisa ezomnotho.
imibuzo ejwayelekile ukubuzwa
Amasistimu okugcina ibhethri ahlala isikhathi esingakanani?
Amasistimu e-lithium-yesimanjemanje agunyazwe iminyaka engu-10-15 futhi ngokuvamile agcina u-80% womthamo wangempela ngemva kwemijikelezo yokushaja engu-5,000-10,000. Ubude bokuphila bangempela buncike kukhemistri (i-LFP ihlala isikhathi eside kune-NMC), amazinga okushisa okusebenza, nokuthi ibhethri likhipha ukujula kangakanani umjikelezo ngamunye. Amasistimu esikali segridi asebenzisa isofthiwe yokuphatha ibhethri elungiselela ukuphila isikhathi eside—ngezinye izikhathi ehlisa imali engenayo ukuze andise ukuphila okusebenzisekayo. Amasistimu okuhamba ngamabhayisikili nsuku zonke ngokuvamile adinga ukushintshwa ngemva kweminyaka eyi-10-12, nakuba i-inverter nezinto zikagesi zingadinga isevisi ngaphambi kwalokho.
Kwenzekani kumabhethri ekugcineni--kwempilo?
Ukugaywa kabusha kwebhethri sekuphenduke imboni ekhulayo, ethola i-lithium, i-cobalt, i-nickel, nezinye izinto ezibalulekile. Izinqubo zamanje zokugaywa kabusha zithola u-90-95% wezinto zebhethri. Nokho, ingqalasizinda yokugaya ayikakalwa ngokugcwele ngenxa yokuthi amabhethri amaningi e-lithium-ion afakwe kule minyaka eyishumi edlule ahlala esebenza. Imboni ilindele ukwanda kwamabhethri{6}okuphila atholakalayo ngemva kuka-2030 njengoba i-EV yangaphambi kwesikhathi kanye namasistimu okugcina amagridi eyeka ukusebenza. Amanye amabhethri angasahlangabezani nezidingo zokusebenza kwegridi angase aphinde ahloselwe izinhlelo zokusebenza ezingafuneki kangako ngaphambi kokuvuselelwa kokugcina.
Ingabe amasistimu okugcina ibhethri aphephile ukuthi angafakwa eduze kwamakhaya noma amabhizinisi?
Amasistimu ebhethri esimanje ahlanganisa izendlalelo eziningi zokuphepha ezinciphise kakhulu izingozi zomlilo. Ukushintshela kukhemistri ye-LFP kubaluleke kakhulu-lawa maseli azinzile ngokwemvelo kunezinye izindlela ezisekelwe ku-nickel{2}. Amasistimu aklanywe kahle ahlanganisa ukuphathwa kwe-thermal, ukutholwa kwegesi, ukucisha umlilo, namandla okunqamula izimo eziphuthumayo. Izinga lesigameko lehlile laya kumicimbi engu-0.03 nge-GW ngayinye yomthamo ofakiwe, futhi ukwehluleka okuningi kuhilela ukulawula ama-electronics kunamaseli ebhethri ngokwawo. Iminyango yendawo yokucima umlilo ngokuvamile ibuyekeza izinhlelo zokuphepha zokufakwa okukhulu futhi ibambe iqhaza ekuqeqeshweni kwezimo eziphuthumayo.
Ingabe isitoreji sebhethri singasebenza emazingeni okushisa aphezulu?
Ukusebenza kwebhethri kuyahlukahluka kuye ngezinga lokushisa, kodwa amasistimu esimanje ahlanganisa ukuphatha okushisayo okusebenzayo ukuze kugcinwe ububanzi obuphezulu bokusebenza. Amasistimu amaningi e-lithium{1}}asebenza ku--20℃kuya +45 kwezimo ze-ambient, esebenzisa ukushisisa nokupholisa njengoba kudingeka. Izimo zezulu ezibanda kakhulu zidinga ukufakwa kwe-insulation kanye nezakhi zokushisa. Izimo zezulu ezishisa kakhulu zidinga umthamo omkhulu wokupholisa. Lezi zinhlelo zokuphatha ezishisayo zisebenzisa amandla, zinciphisa ukusebenza kahle kwesistimu ezimeni ezimbi kakhulu. Ezinye izindawo zisebenzisa isitoreji samandla ashisayo (ukugcina ukushisisa/ukupholisa) eduze namabhethri kagesi ukunciphisa lo mthelela.
Ingabe amabhethri afaneleka ukuthola izikhuthazo ezifanayo namaphaneli elanga?
Umthetho Wokuncishiswa Kokwehla Nokwehla kwamandla emali wandise u-30% wekhredithi yentela yokutshalwa kwezimali yombuso kumasistimu okugcina amabhethri azimele, ushintsho olukhulu lwenqubomgomo emithethweni yangaphambilini eyayidinga indawo{1}}yelanga. Lesi sikweletu sisebenza kumasistimu okuhlala (umthamo omncane ongu-3 kWh) kanye nezinhlelo zezentengiselwano, ezitholakalayo ukuze zifakwe ngo-2032, bese zincipha kancane kancane. Izifundazwe eziningi zinikeza izikhuthazo ezengeziwe-Uhlelo lwe-SGIP lwase-California, izisusa zesitoreji saseNew York, kanye nohlelo lwase-Massachusetts lwe-SMART konke kuhlinzeka ngezinkokhelo ezisekelwe ekusebenzeni{7}. Lezi zinzuzo zingamboza u-30-50% wesamba sezindleko zesistimu uma zihlanganiswa namakhredithi kahulumeni.
Izindleko zebhethri ziqhathaniswa kanjani namajeneretha ayisipele?
Izindleko zangaphambili zamasistimu ebhethri ngokuvamile zisebenzisa okungu-2-3x kwalezo zamajeneretha edizili ngesisekelo se-kW ngayinye. Ijeneretha engu-20 kW ingase ibize u-$8,000-12,000 ukufakwa, kuyilapho isistimu yebhethri efanayo ibiza u-$20,000-30,000. Kodwa-ke, amabhethri awanazo izindleko zokusebenza (awukho uphethiloli, ukunakekelwa okuncane) futhi angakwazi ukukhiqiza imali ngokuncishiswa kwenani elifunekayo noma amasevisi egridi. Esikhathini esiyiminyaka eyi-10, izindleko eziphelele zobunikazi ngokuvamile zivuna amabhethri, ikakhulukazi ezinhlelweni ezidinga ukusetshenziswa njalo. Amabhethri aphinde ashintshe ngokushesha, anikeze amandla ahlanzekile ku-elekthronikhi, futhi asebenze buthule ngaphandle kokukhipa. Izikhungo eziningi manje sezifaka amabhethri azosetshenziswa njalo namajeneretha njengesipele sokucisha isikhathi eside.
Izishayeli Ezibalulekile Zokusetshenziswa
Icala lokugcinwa kwebhethri lincike ekuguquleni izici zobuchwepheshe, ezomnotho, nenqubomgomo kunesizathu esisodwa esiphoqayo. Ukwehliswa kwezindleko kususe isithiyo esiyinhloko somlando-amasistimu abiza u-$2,571/kWh ngo-2010 manje abiza u-$165/kWh, kanti i-China izuza ngaphansi kuka-$100/kWh. Lokhu kwehla okungu-90%+ kuguqule izibalo zezomnotho ngokuyisisekelo kuzo zonke izinhlelo zokusebenza.
Ama-opharetha egridi adinga izinsiza ezisheshayo-ezisabelayo ukuze agcine uzinzo njengoba ukukhiqizwa okuvuselelekayo kuthatha indawo yezitshalo ezivamile. Ukugcinwa kwebhethri kunikeza impendulo yefrikhwensi kanye nokwesekwa kwamandla kagesi okungaphezu kwanoma ibuphi obunye ubuchwepheshe. Ikhono lokushintsha usuka kokubekwe eceleni uye emandleni agcwele ngaphansi kwesekhondi elilodwa lenza isitoreji sibe wusizo ngokukhethekile ezimweni eziphuthumayo zegridi.
Ukuhlanganiswa kwamandla avuselelekayo kudala isidingo esiqondile sesikhathi samandla-ukushintsha. Amaphethini elanga nawomoya awavamile ukufanisa amaphethini okusebenzisa. Ngaphandle kwesitoreji, amagridi amosha amandla avuselelekayo ngokuncishiswa kuyilapho esashisa izibaseli ezimbiwa phansi phakathi nokuphakama kwesidingo. Isitoreji sebhethri sithwebula lawa -amandla amoshekile futhi siwasebenzise kabusha lapho kudingeka, okwandisa ukusetshenziswa okuvuselelekayo.
Izikhungo zezentengiselwano nezimboni zisebenzisa isitoreji ngokuyinhloko ngenxa yezizathu zomnotho-zokunciphisa amanani entengo aphakeme, ukwehlisa isikhathi{1}}so{2}}sezindleko zokusetshenziswa, kanye nokukhiqiza izimali ezingenayo zokuphendula isidingo. Izinzuzo ezinokwethenjelwa zinikeza inani elingeziwe, ikakhulukazi emisebenzini lapho ukucisha kubangela ukulahlekelwa okukhulu. Inhlanganisela yokongiwa kwezindleko kanye nokwehliswa kwezingozi ngokuvamile kuvumela ukutshalwa kwezimali ngaphandle kokucatshangelwa kwemvelo.
Ukwesekwa kwenqubomgomo ngamakhredithi entela, iziyalezo zokuthengwa kwempahla, nezinguquko zemakethe kusheshise ukwamukelwa ngokunciphisa ubungozi bezezimali nokucacisa amathuba emali engenayo. Ikhredithi yentela yotshalomali yombuso engu-30% iyodwa ifinyeze izikhathi zokukhokha ngeminyaka emi-3-5 kumaphrojekthi amaningi. Izinhlelo ezisezingeni likahulumeni zidala izimakethe eziqinisekisiwe ezivumela uxhaso lwephrojekthi.
Ubuchwepheshe ngokwabo buyaqhubeka nokuthuthukisa{0}}impilo yomjikelezo omude, ukuphepha okungcono, izindleko eziphansi, namandla okuhlanganisa athuthukisiwe. Le ntuthuko ekhulayo ihlangana ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, okwenza amasistimu afakwe namuhla abe ngcono kakhulu kunalawo aseminyakeni embalwa edlule. I-trajectory yokuthuthukisa ayibonisi izimpawu zokwehla, namanye amakhemikhali athembisa izinzuzo ezinkulu nakakhulu zezinhlelo zokusebenza ezithile.
Uma sibheka izinombolo zokuthunyelwa, i-US yengeze u-10.4 GW ngo-2024 futhi ihlela u-19.6 GW ngo-2025. I-California ine-12.5 GW efakiwe, i-Texas 8 GW. Lawa akuwona amaphrojekthi okulinga okuhlola{9}}lawa amasistimu{10}}esikali aletha inani elilinganisekayo kuma-opharetha wegridi, izinsiza, nabasebenzisi bamandla. Ipayipi elingu-143 GW kuze kube ngu-2030 libonisa ukukhula okuqhubekayo okusekelwe kumnotho ofakazelwe esikhundleni samandla okuqagela.
Umshayeli oyisisekelo uyinzuzo engokoqobo. Amasistimu okulondoloza ibhethri axazulula izinkinga zangempela-ukungaqini kwegridi, ukuncishiswa okuvuselelekayo, izindleko zokufunwa, izindleko zokucisha{2}}ngenkathi kukhiqizwa izimbuyiselo ezilinganisekayo. Njengoba izindleko ziqhubeka nokuncipha futhi izimo zokusebenzisa ziphindaphindeka, umbuzo uyasuka kokuthi "kungani kufanele usebenzise isitoreji sebhethri" uye kokuthi "iluphi uhlelo lokusebenza oluyithethelelayo kuqala."