Ukuhlola ulwazi lwentengo yesistimu yesitoreji samandla ebhethri kudinga ukufinyelela imithombo eminingi yedatha. Imininingo egciniwe yocwaningo efana ne-NREL ne-PNNL ihlinzeka ngezilinganiso eziyisisekelo, amawebhusayithi abakhiqizi anikeza izingcaphuno eziqondile, izinkundla zokuthenga ezifana ne-EnergySage zinika amandla ukuqhathanisa amanani, kanye nemibiko yemboni evela ku-BloombergNEF ilandelela amathrendi emakethe. Ukuze uthole ukuthengwa okusemthethweni, izinhlangano eziningi zikhipha ama-RFP kubathengisi abaningi ukuze bathole izingcaphuno ezincintisanayo.
Imininingo egciniwe kaHulumeni Nezikhungo Zocwaningo
Idatha yamanani esisekelo enokwethenjelwa kakhulu ivela ezikhungweni zocwaningo zikahulumeni ezilandelela amathrendi ezimakethe ngaphandle kokuchema kwezohwebo. I-National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) igcina isizindalwazi Sonyaka Sesisekelo Sobuchwepheshe, esihlinzeka ngokuhlukaniswa kwezindleko ezinemininingwane-zesilinganiso se-BESS phakathi nobude besikhathi nezimo ezihlukahlukene. Idatha yabo yango-2024 ibonisa amasistimu ensiza-esikali ku-$334/kWh kumasistimu obude besikhathi samahora angu-4, nokuqagela okudlulela ku-2050 ngaphansi kwezimo zobuchwepheshe ezilondolozayo, ezimaphakathi, nezithuthukile.
I-Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) isebenzisa I-Energy Storage Cost and Performance Database, enikeza amathuluzi asebenzisanayo okuhlola izindleko ezifakiwe ngohlobo lobuchwepheshe, umthamo wamandla, nobude besikhathi. Lesi sizindalwazi sifaka ubuchwepheshe obuningi ngale kwe-lithium-ion, okuhlanganisa amabhethri agelezayo, ama-flywheels, nesitoreji somoya esicindezelwe. Inzuzo yale mithombo ukubonakala kwayo kundlela yokusebenza kanye nezibuyekezo ezivamile ezisekelwe kudatha yangempela yemakethe.
Ukuze uthole amabhentshimakhi aphesheya, i-BloombergNEF ishicilela Inhlolovo Yezindleko Zesistimu Yokugcinwa Kwebhethri yaminyaka yonke. Inhlolovo yabo yango-2024 ithole izintengo zesistimu ye-turnkey ezimaphakathi zomhlaba jikelele ku-$165/kWh, ezimele ukwehla okungu-40%{4}ngaphezulu-konyaka. Idatha ye-BNEF ibaluleke kakhulu ngoba ihlukanisa intengo ngokwesifunda-I-China yenza isilinganiso esingu-$85-101/kWh kuyilapho i-US yenza isilinganiso esingu-$236/kWh-futhi ihlukanisa phakathi kwamasistimu angu-2 namahora angu-4.
Lezi zingosi zolwazi zisebenza njengokuhlola okwangempela lapho kuhlolwa izingcaphuno zabathengisi. Ukuqonda intengo yesistimu yesitoreji samandla ebhethri isukela emithonjeni egunyaziwe kusiza ekuboneni ukuthi ingabe ikhotheshini idlula ngokuphawulekayo amabhentshimakhi ngaphandle kwesizathu esicacile{1}}isiginali yokumba ujule noma ufune amabhidi engeziwe.
Amawebhusayithi Omkhiqizi kanye Nesididiyeli Sesistimu
Iziteshi zomkhiqizi oqondile zinikeza amanani entengo yokucushwa okujwayelekile, nakuba izingcaphuno ezinemininingwane ngokuvamile zidinga ukubuzwa. Abakhiqizi abakhulu bamaselula njenge-CATL, BYD, kanye ne-Samsung SDI ngokuyinhloko bahlinzeka ngezihlanganisi ezinkulu kunokuba bagcine amakhasimende, ngamanani okuxoxiswane ngawo ngezinkontileka eziningi-ze-GWh. Ngamasistimu aphelele, abahlanganisi abafana noFluence, Wärtsilä, Sungrow, kanye ne-Tesla Energy banikeza amaphuzu okungena afinyeleleka kakhudlwana.
Abakhiqizi abaningi bahlela intengo yabo ngokuzungeze iziqukathi ze-modular. Isiqukathi esijwayelekile esingamamitha angu-20 singathwala umthamo ongu-3.7 MWh ngamasistimu okuphatha ibhethri ahlanganisiwe nezinto zokusebenza zokuguqula amandla. Nakuba abakhiqizi bevame ukushicilela ama-spec sheet anamandla okuzisholo kanye nezilinganiso zamandla, izingcaphuno zangempela zesistimu yebhethri yokugcina amandla zincike kumininingwane yephrojekthi: indawo yokulethwa, inkimbinkimbi yokufaka, imigomo yesiqinisekiso, nezici zesofthiwe.
Izinketho ezincane-zesikali zikhona ngezinkampani ezifana ne-GSL Energy, Highjoule, ne-Leoch, eziqondise izinhlelo zokusebenza zezohwebo nezimboni kusukela ku-50 kWh kuya ku-500 kWh. Laba bahlinzeki bagcina amanani abonakala kakhudlwana kumawebhusayithi abo, anobubanzi obufana no-$280-580/kWh kumasistimu okuhweba afakiwe, ehla aze afike ku-$180-300/kWh ekufakweni okukhudlwana okuqukatha.
Lapho ucela izingcaphuno kubakhiqizi, cacisa izidingo zakho ngokucacile: umthamo (kWh), amandla (kW), ubude besikhathi (amahora), umjikelezo wemisebenzi (imijikelezo yansuku zonke), indawo yokusebenza, namandla kagesi oxhumano lwegridi. Imibuzo engacacile iholela ezimpendulweni ezingacacile. Uma unikeza imininingwane eyengeziwe, icaphuna lokuqala linembe kakhulu.
I-Online Comparison and Procurement Platforms
I-EnergySage isebenzisa indawo yemakethe encintisanayo ikakhulukazi yokugcina amandla, lapho izifaki ziqhudelana ngamaphrojekthi okuhlala kanye namaphrojekthi amancane okuhweba. Idatha yabo yango-Okthoba 2025 ibonisa amasistimu okuhlala ase-California enza isilinganiso esingu-$1,031/kWh, nesistimu evamile engu-13 kWh ebiza u-$11,400-15,400 ngaphambi kwezinxephezelo. Inani leplathifomu lilele ekuqhathanisweni kwezicaphuni ezifanayo-ukubona okunikezwayo okungu-5-7 kanyekanye kuveza ububanzi bemakethe namandla okuxoxisana.
Ukuze uthole usizo lwezimboni, izinkundla ezifana ne-Thomas.net ziklelisa amakhulukhulu abakhiqizi be-BESS nabasabalalisi ngokuhlunga ngomthamo, ikhemistri, nezitifiketi. I-BESSfinder ilinganisa abakhiqizi bomhlaba wonke ngamandla okukhiqiza kanye nesabelo semakethe, okuwusizo ekuhloleni ukwethembeka komthengisi. Lezi zinkomba azinikezi amanani ngokuqondile kodwa zilula inqubo yokuhlonza umthengisi.
I-Anza Renewables isanda kwethula inkundla yokulandelela abahlinzeki base-US bamaseli, amamojula, neziqukathi ezinedatha yesikhathi sokuhola-ulwazi olubalulekile olunikezwa ukuguquguquka kwe-supply chain. Ukwazi ukuthi abahlinzeki abambalwa kuphela abangaletha US-amaseli akhiqiziwe ngo-2025 kusiza ukusetha okulindelwe okungokoqobo kukho kokubili amanani nezikhathi.
Umkhawulo walezi zinkundla ukumbozwa. Izinsiza-amaphrojekthi esikalini awavamile ukuvela-ezimakethe ezibhekene nabathengi, futhi okwenziwayo okuningi kwe-B2B kwenzeka ngobudlelwano obumisiwe kunezinkundla ezivulekile. Noma kunjalo, zibalulekile ekutholweni kwemakethe kanye nokuqiniswa kwentengo yokuqala.
Imibiko Yezimboni Nocwaningo Lwezimakethe
Ucwaningo lokubhaliselwe oluvela ku-Wood Mackenzie, Guidehouse Insights, kanye ne-IHS Markit inikeza izibikezelo zenani leminyaka engu-10-kanye nokuhlukaniswa kwemakethe okunemininingwane. I-Wood Mackenzie's H1 2024 Igridi yase-US-Umbiko Wezilinganiso Zentengo Yesitoreji Samandla uhlaziya womabili amakhemikhali e-LFP ne-NMC ngokuhlukaniswa kwengxenye eyodwa. Le mibiko ibiza u-$2,000-10,000 kodwa inikeza ukujula okungatholakali kwenye indawo.
Umbiko webhethri waminyaka yonke we-Volta Foundation uhlanganisa idatha esuka kochwepheshe abangu-120 kuzo zonke izikhungo 100+. Uhlelo lwama-500-lwekhasi 2024 lubhale ukukhula konyaka okungu-55%-ngaphezu{11}}kokukhuphuka konyaka kokuphakelwa kwe-BESS, kwengeza u-69 GW/169 GWh emhlabeni jikelele. Ngale kwezibalo zokuphakwa, ihlaziye izindlela zokwehluleka{12}}ibhalansi{13}}ye{14}}yezingxenye zesistimu ezibangele ukwehluleka okukhulu kunolwazi lwamaseli ebhethri oluhambisana nenani eliphelele lezibalo zobunikazi.
I-Clean Energy Associates ishicilela izibuyekezo zentengo ezihlola izici ezingaphezu kweseli yebhethri: izindleko zezinto ze-anode, ukusebenza kahle kokukhiqiza, kanye nokucindezelwa kwemajini yabahlinzeki. Ukuhlaziya kwabo kuphawulwe ukuthi i-lithium carbonate manje imele kuphela u-5% wezindleko zesiqukathi se-DC ngentengo yamanje yemakethe, ishintshela ukugxila kwabanye abashayeli bezindleko njengokutholwa okuzenzakalelayo kuma-gigafactory.
Le mibiko ibaluleke kakhulu ekuhleleni kwamasu{0}}ukuqonda ukuthi imakethe iphokophele kuphi phakathi neminyaka engu-3-5 kunentengo yanamuhla. Unjiniyela ohlela iphrojekthi ka-2027 udinga ulwazi oluhlukile kunothile othenga izinto zokusebenza kule kota.
Isicelo Senqubo Yesiphakamiso (RFP).
Ngokuthenga okungaphezu kuka-1 MWh, inqubo ye-RFP ingumkhuba ojwayelekile. Izinsiza kanye nabathengi abakhulu bezentengiselwano bakhipha imininingwane enemininingwane futhi bathole iziphakamiso ezihlelekile ezivela kubathengisi abaqeqeshiwe. I-BESS RFP ehlelwe kahle ihlanganisa izidingo zobuchwepheshe (ikhemistri, umthamo, amandla, ubude besikhathi,{3}}ukusebenza kahle kohambo), izimo zesayithi, imininingwane yokuxhumana, iziqinisekiso zokusebenza, imigomo yesiqinisekiso, nezibopho zokunakekela.
I-Georgia Power's 2025 RFP yezinsiza zesitoreji sebhethri iyisibonelo sokusebenziseka-sikali sokuthengwa kwempahla: izikhathi zokuphawula ezivulekile, imibandela yokuhlola esobala, kanye nokuhloswe komthamo okucacile. I-Central Hudson's 2024 RFP ye-10+ MW yamalungelo okuthumela isebenzise-indlela eyindilinga{6}}Umjikelezo 1 onesisindo esikhulu sezezimali nobuchwepheshe, Umjikelezo 2 uhlanganisa izindleko zokuxhuma kanye namashejuli anemininingwane.
I-Federal Acquisition Regulation 15.203 ibusa ama-RFP kahulumeni, adinga ukuxhumana okucacile kwezidingo, izici zokuhlola, nokubaluleka kwazo okuhlobene. Ngisho nama-RFP emboni yangasese ayazuza kulesi sakhiwo. Inqubo yokuhlola ivamise ukuba nesisindo sekhono lobuchwepheshe (40%), intengo (30%), isipiliyoni (20%), kanye newaranti/usekelo (10%), nakuba amaphesenti ehluka ngokubalulekile kwephrojekthi.
Isikhathi sesikhathi se-RFP ngokuvamile sithatha izinsuku ezingu-60-120: amasonto angu-2-3 emibuzo nezimpendulo, amasonto angu-4-6 okuthuthukiswa kwesiphakamiso, amasonto angu-2-4 okuhlolwa, namaviki angu-2-3 ezingxoxo. Imigqa yesikhathi emifushane iveza izimpendulo zekhwalithi ezimbalwa. Umhlahlandlela wokuthenga we-NRECA uphawula ukuthi ama-cooperatives ngokuvamile athola izibalo zamabhidi ezidumazayo lapho esheshisa inqubo noma engenakho ukucaciswa okucacile.
Ukuqonda Izingxenye Zentengo Nokuhluka
Ukuhlola izakhiwo zenani lesistimu yokugcina amandla ebhethri kudinga ukuqonda ukuthi izindleko zehla kanjani. Intengo ye-BESS ihlukanisa amaseli ebhethri (40-50%), amasistimu okuguqula amandla (15-20%), ibhalansi yesistimu ehlanganisa i-BMS nokuphathwa kokushisa (20-25%), nokufakwa/ukuthuma (10-15%). Lokhu kusatshalaliswa kuchaza ukuthi kungani amanani entengo eseli ehlayo angahumushi ngokuqondile ekuncishisweni kwezindleko zesistimu.
Ukwehluka kwesifunda kuvela ezintweni eziningi. Izintengo zasekhaya zaseShayina ziyazuza esikalini sokukhiqiza-I-China ibamba uhhafu wokufakwa konyaka emhlabeni wonke{2}}kanye nokuncintisana okukhulu phakathi kwabahlinzeki. Izintengo zase-US ziphethe amaphrimiyamu entengo: Izintela zeSigaba 301 kumabhethri ase-China zikhuphuka zisuka ku-7.5% zaya ku-25% ngo-2026, nakuba amakhredithi entela yokuqukethwe kwasekhaya asusa lokhu kancane kumasistimu afanelekayo.
Ubude besikhathi buthinta kakhulu-intengo ngayinye ye-kWh. Isistimu yamahora angu-4-ibiza kancane nge-kWh ngayinye kunesistimu yamahora angu-2-amahora angu-2 ngoba izingxenye zamandla (ama-inverter, ama-transformer) zingusayizi ka-$/kW kune-$/kWh. Ukusabalalisa lezi zindleko ezingaguquki ngaphezu komthamo wamandla engeziwe kuthuthukisa ezomnotho-ze-kWh, okwenza amasistimu esikhathi eside ehlise izindleko ezinhlelweni zokusebenza ezingasebenzisa umthamo owengeziwe.
Izinketho zeKhemistry nazo ziqhuba umehluko wamanani. I-Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) ibusa isitoreji esimile ngenxa yokuphepha okuphakeme nempilo yomjikelezo, nakuba ngezindleko zangaphambili eziphakeme kancane kunezinye izindlela ze-nickel manganese cobalt (NMC). Amabhethri agelezayo anikeza iminyaka engu-20+ yokuphila ukuphila ngokonakaliswa okuncane kodwa athwala izindleko zokuqala eziphezulu kanye nokuminyana kwamandla okuphansi. Ukukhetha okuhle kuncike esimweni sokusebenzisa{4}}ukulawulwa kwemvamisa kuvumela ukuminyana kwamandla aphezulu, kuyilapho isitoreji sesizini sithanda ukuphila isikhathi eside.
Amathrendi Amanani Nokucatshangelwa Kwesikhathi
Izindleko zebhethri zehle ngo-89% kusukela ngo-2010 kuya ku-2023, zafinyelela ku-$151/kWh ngezintengo zephekhi ezimaphakathi. Ukwehla okungu-40%-ngaphezulu{{7}ngonyaka ka-2024 ngo-2024 kwamele ukwehla okukhulu kakhulu-konyaka owodwa emlandweni wemboni, okuqhutshwa izingqinamba ezixazululiwe ze-supply chain, amanani entengo e-lithium ehle (ehle ngo-270% ukusuka eziqongweni ze-Q{11}}), kanye namandla okukhiqiza ikakhulukazi e-China.
Ukuqagela phambili kuyahlukahluka ngomthombo kanye nesimo. Isimo esimaphakathi se-NREL sibikezela ukwehla okungama-37% kwe-CAPEX kusukela ngo-2022 kuya ku-2035, okulinganiselwa ku-2.9% ngonyaka. Iphrojekthi yabo yesimo esithuthukisiwe inciphisa ngo-52% (4.0% ngonyaka) kuyilapho icala elilondolozayo libonisa kuphela ukwehla ngo-18% (1.4% ngonyaka). Ibanga elibanzi libonisa ukungaqiniseki mayelana namazinga okuthuthuka kobuchwepheshe, isikali sokukhiqiza, namandla wezinto ezingavuthiwe.
Intengo eseduze-ibhekene ne-crosscurrents. Ukwenyuka kwentela ngo-2026 kuzocindezela izindleko zase-US zikhuphuke. Kodwa-ke, ukukhiqizwa kwasekhaya kuyadlondlobala-I-Fluence ilindele i-US-amaseli akhiqiziwe atholakala ngo-2025 kusuka ku-AESC, futhi i-Gotion yakhiqiza amaphakethe okuqala e-ESS e-California ngo-2024. Ikhredithi yokukhiqiza ye-Inflation Act ye-45X kanye namabhonasi wokuqukethwe kwasekhaya agqugquzela ukukhiqizwa kwe-US, nakuba ngezinga eliphansi kusungulwe ukonakala.
Kubathengi, lokhu kudala imibuzo yesikhathi yamasu. Ukulinda kungase kuthwebule ukwehla kwentengo okwengeziwe futhi kunwetshwe izinketho zokukhiqiza zase-US. Kodwa-ke, amanani amanje amelela ukwehla komlando, futhi ukusetshenziswa kwentela kungase kubuyisele emuva ezinye izinzuzo. Amaphrojekthi anezinsuku eziqinile zokuqeda noma amakhredithi entela aphelelwa yisikhathi anokuguquguquka okuncane kokuthuthukisa isikhathi.
Amafulegi Abomvu Nezingibe Zentengo
Izingcaphuno ezingaphansi kakhulu kwamabhentshimakhi emakethe zifanele ukucutshungulwa. Nakuba izintengo ezinolaka zingabonisa izinzuzo zokusebenza kahle noma amasu okungena emakethe, okunikezwayo kwe-lowball ngezinye izikhathi azifaki izingxenye ezibalulekile. Ikhwotheshini ingase ifake kuphela irack yebhethri kanye nesistimu yokuguqula amandla, ukuyeka i-BMS, ukucisha umlilo, ukuphathwa kwe-thermal, noma umsebenzi wokufaka. Njalo qinisekisa ububanzi: yini efakiwe, yini engabaliwe, nokuthi yini ongayikhetha.
Izindleko ezifihliwe zivame ukuvela ekufakeni. Ukulungiswa kwesiza, ukuthuthukiswa kwengqalasizinda kagesi, izindleko zokuxhuma igridi, nezindleko zezimvume zingangeza u-20-40% enanini lesistimu yebhethri. Isilinganiso sika-$500/kWh siba ngu-$700/kWh ngemva kokubalwa kwalezi zinto. Cela inani lezindleko ezifakiwe ezifaka wonke umsebenzi wesayithi, hhayi nje amanani emishini.
Imigomo yesiqinisekiso ihluka kakhulu futhi ithinta-inani lesikhathi eside. Iwaranti yeminyaka eyi-10 eqinisekisa u-70% wamandla asele ihluke kakhulu kumthamo owodwa oqinisekisa u-80% noma ehlanganisa kuphela amaphutha okukhiqiza. Buyekeza izimo zewaranti ngokucophelela: yimaphi amaphethini okusebenzisa ukufakwa kwe-void, okhokhela ukuxilongwa, liyini izinga lembuyiselo yezabasebenzi. Amasistimu ashibhile kwesinye isikhathi aphatha amawaranti anemikhawulo akhuphula inani eliphelele lobunikazi.
Ukucaciswa kokusebenza kudinga ukuhumusha. Ibhethri elilinganiselwe imijikelezo engu-4,000 ekujuleni okungu-80% kokukhishwa ngaphansi kwezimo zaselabhorethri lingaletha ukusebenza okuhluke kakhulu{4}kuzinhlelo zokusebenza zomhlaba zangempela ezinamazinga okushisa ahlukene, amaphethini okugibela ibhayisikili, nokujula kokukhipha. Cela abathengisi ngedatha yokusebenza efana nesimo sakho ohlosiwe sokusebenzisa, hhayi nje ubukhulu bedatha yedatha.
Ukusebenzisa Imithombo Eminingi Yokuqinisekisa
Ireferensi-yemithombo eminingi yamanani entengo ihlinzeka ngokuqinisekisa kanye nenzuzo yokuxoxisana. Uma izizindalwazi zikahulumeni zibonisa u-$200-250/kWh esikalini sakho sohlelo kanye nohlelo lokusebenza, kodwa izingcaphuno zifika ku-$400/kWh, uphenyo luqinisekisiwe. Mhlawumbe isayithi lakho linezinselele eziyingqayizivele ezithethelela i-premium, noma mhlawumbe abathengisi bathatha ulwazi lwemakethe olulinganiselwe.
Ukuqhathanisa izingcaphuno kudinga ukujwayela ukuhluka kobubanzi. Umthengisi oyedwa angase ahlanganise ukuthunywa nokuqeqeshwa, omunye angase akhokhise ngokwehlukana. Guqula zonke izingcaphuno zibe isamba sezindleko ezifakiwe nge-kWh ngayinye ezilethiwe, ukulinganisa kuzo zonke izinkokhelo namasevisi. Dala izinto zesipredishithi: okokusebenza, ukufakwa, ukugunyazwa, iziqinisekiso, isofthiwe, ukugcinwa, kanye nezindleko zezimali uma zikhona.
Amaphrojekthi ayizethenjwa anikeza iqiniso eliyisisekelo. Uma umthengisi efuna u-$300/kWh afakiwe, cela amaphrojekthi afanayo: isikali, indawo, idethi yokuqeda, nezithenjwa ezingaqinisekiswa. Ukukhuluma namakhasimende esikhathi esidlule kuveza ukuthi izindleko zokugcina zifana yini nezingcaphuno zokuqala nokuthi ingabe isistimu iyahlangabezana yini neziqinisekiso zokusebenza. Izingqungquthela zezimboni namaqembu asebenzayo ahlinzeka ngemigudu engahlelekile yokuxoxa{4}}ngamanani omhlaba kanye nokusebenza komthengisi.
Izinzuzo zezimali zithinta kakhulu izindleko zizonke. Ikhredithi yentela yotshalomali engu-30% yombuso isebenza endaweni yokugcina ebhangqwe nelanga. Ezinye izifundazwe zinikeza izikhuthazo ezengeziwe-Uhlelo lwaseCalifornia lwe-SGIP luhlinzeka ngokufika ku-$1,000/kWh ezimeni ezithile. Ukukhiqiza amakhredithi entela ngaphansi kwabahlinzeki bezinzuzo ze-IRA, okungenzeka kunikeze amandla amanani aphansi{7}}okuqukethwe okwenziwe e-US. Yakha isithombe esiphelele sezezimali esifaka zonke izinxephezelo ezifanele.
imibuzo ejwayelekile ukubuzwa
Ingabe abakhiqizi bashicilela uhlu lwamanani ezinto zokusebenza ze-BESS?
Abakhiqizi abaningi abashicileli uhlu lwentengo yesistimu yokugcina amandla ebhethri engaguquki ngenxa yokuthi intengo yesistimu incike kakhulu ekucacisweni kwephrojekthi. Isistimu engu-1 MWh e-California enezidingo ezithile zokuxhumanisa ibiza ngokuhlukile kunomthamo ofanayo we-nameplate e-Texas enezimo zesayithi ezihlukile. Abakhiqizi bahlinzeka ngezingcaphuno ezisekelwe ekucacisweni okuningiliziwe kwezobuchwepheshe kanye nezidingo zesayithi. Abanye{4}}abancane abadayisi bemikhiqizo yokuhlala baklelisa izintengo zokuqala, kodwa lezi zisadinga ukwenziwa ngendlela oyifisayo ngokusekelwe ezidingweni zokufaka.
Ingabe izintengo ze-BESS zihluka kangakanani ngesifunda?
Ukuhluka kwesifunda kukhulu. Imakethe yasekhaya yase-China yenza isilinganiso esingu-$85-101/kWh kuyilapho amasistimu e-US ephakathi kuka-$236/kWh-ngaphezulu kokuphindwe kabili. IYurophu iwela phakathi kwalezi zimo ezeqisayo. Umehluko usukela ekusondeleni kokukhiqiza, izindleko zabasebenzi bendawo, izimfuneko zokuthobela imithetho, kanye nezakhiwo zentela. Izintengo zase-US zifaka amanani entengo eSigaba 301 ekuthengisweni kwe-China (ekhuphukela ku-25% ngo-2026), nakuba izikhuthazo zokuqukethwe kwasekhaya zinciphisa kancane lokhu kumasistimu afanelekayo.
Yini efakwe esilinganisweni sentengo ye-BESS evamile?
Ububanzi buhluka ngomthengisi, okwenza ukuqhathanisa kwekhwothi kube nzima. Izingcaphuno zesistimu eyinhloko ngokuvamile zihlanganisa amamojula ebhethri, isistimu yokuphatha ibhethri, isistimu yokuguqulwa kwamandla, ukuphathwa kwe-thermal, kanye nesivalo/isitsha. Kodwa-ke, ukufakwa, ukugunyazwa, amalayisense esofthiwe, iziqinisekiso, nokulungiswa kungase kube izinto ezihlukene zomugqa. Ngaso sonke isikhathi cacisa ukuthi yini efakiwe: okokusebenza kuphela, ukufakwa kwe-turnkey, noma i-EPC egcwele (ubunjiniyela, ukuthenga, ukwakha). Izindleko zokuxhuma igridi cishe zihlala zihlukene.
Ingabe kufanele ngilinde amanani ehle kakhulu ngaphambi kokuthenga?
Lokhu kuncike ezikhathini zephrojekthi kanye nokucatshangelwa kwezimali. Izintengo zebhethri ziyaqhubeka nokwehla-40% ngo-2024 kuphela-okusikisela ukwehla okwengeziwe okuzayo. Kodwa-ke, amanani entengo ase-US akhuphuka ngo-2026 angase ahlehlise izinzuzo ezithile ngaphakathi. I-ITC yombuso yehla isuka ku-30% iye ku-0% ngemva kukaDisemba 2025, okuthinta kakhulu izindleko zephrojekthi ebhangqwe nelanga. Bala ukuthi ukulinda kwentengo yesisetshenziswa kuyehla kunesisindo sokulahlekelwa ivelu yesikhuthazo. Amaphrojekthi anezinsuku eziqinile zokuqeda noma izimvume eziphelelwa yisikhathi zinokuvumelana nezimo okulinganiselwe.
Ukwenza Izinqumo Zokutholwa Kwempahla Ezinolwazi
Iziteshi eziningi zamanani zisebenzisa izinjongo ezihlukile uma ucwaninga inani lesistimu yokulondoloza amandla ebhethri. Imininingo egciniwe yocwaningo isungula izisekelo zemakethe. Ukusebenzelana okuqondile komkhiqizi kunikeza izingcaphuno zemishini ethile. Izinkundla zokuthenga zinika amandla ukubhida okuncintisanayo. Imboni ibika izitayela zesibikezelo. Ama-RFP aqhuba ukuthengwa kwempahla okusemthethweni. Ukusebenzisa lezi ziteshi ngokuhlanganiswa-okuyisisekelo okuvela ocwaningweni, izingcaphuno ezincintisanayo ngama-RFP, ukuqinisekiswa ngemibiko yemboni{7}}kukhiqiza ukuqonda kwamanani okunolwazi kakhulu.
Ubunkimbinkimbi budinga izikali ezinosayizi wephrojekthi. Isistimu yokuhlala engu-10 kWh iqinisekisa ukuhlola izingcaphuno ze-EnergySage nezithenjwa zesifaki sendawo. Ukufakwa kwezentengiso okungu-500 kWh kuvumela izingcaphuno eziqondile zomkhiqizi kanye nokubuyekezwa konjiniyela okuzimele. Iphrojekthi ewusizo-yesikali esingu-100 MWh idinga ama-RFP asemthethweni, imodeli yezezimali, kanye{7}}nokubikezela kwamanani eminyaka eminingi okuvela kumafemu ocwaningo akhethekile.
Inani limelela into eyodwa kuphela yenani eliphelele. Isistimu{1}}yentengo eyi-premium enewaranti ephezulu, ukuphila isikhathi eside okuqinisekisiwe, ukusekela okusabelayo, nochungechunge lokuhlinzeka okuthembekile lungaletha izindleko ezingcono kakhulu zobunikazi kunentengo ephansi kakhulu yangaphambili. Ibhalansi yezindleko ngokumelene nokubekezelela ubungozi, izidingo zephrojekthi, kanye{3}}nezidingo zokusebenza zesikhathi eside. Ibhethri elishibhe kakhulu elihlulekayo ngaphambi kwesikhathi noma elintula usekelo libonisa ukuthi liyabiza ekugcineni.
Imithombo Yedatha Yentengo Okubhekiselwe kuyo:
I-National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Isisekelo Sonyaka Sobuchwepheshe sango-2024
I-Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Energy Storage Database
Inhlolovo Yezindleko Zesistimu Yesitoreji Sebhethri ye-BloombergNEF yango-2024
Igridi ye-Wood Mackenzie yase-US-Intengo yesikali Yesitoreji Samandla H{1}}
I-Volta Foundation Battery Report 2024
I-Clean Energy Associates Market Analysis 2024