I-Gateway Energy Storage e-San Diego yasha izinsuku eziyisikhombisa ngoMeyi 2024. I-Moss Landing yasha kabili{1}}kanye ngo-2021, futhi ngoJanuwari 2025, kwakhipha abantu abangu-1,500 okwesibili. ISouth Korea ivale izinhlelo ezingama-522 phakathi kuka-2017 no-2019 ngemuva kwemililo engama-28. Kodwa ngo-2024 kuphela, i-United States yengeze amagigawathi angu-12.3 womthamo omusha webhethri-ukweqa okungu-33% kusukela onyakeni odlule{16}}futhi abatshalizimali bathele amabhiliyoni angama-76.69 emakethe yomhlaba.
Ukungqubuzana akulahleki kubahleli bezinsiza noma imikhandlu yamadolobha enqaba amaphrojekthi emagcekeni ayo. Lonke uhlelo lwamandla okugcina ibhethri selubalulekile ngesikhathi esisodwa futhi luyimpikiswano, lunconywa njengesizinda sokushintshwa kwamandla avuselelekayo ngenkathi sibhekene nokumiswa kwenqwaba yemiphakathi. Lokhu kushuba kuveza okuthile okubalulekile mayelana nengqalasizinda yethu yamandla: sibheja ikhabhoni{2}}ikusasa lethu elingathathi hlangothi ngobuchwepheshe esisafunda ukubulawula.
Umbuzo wangempela akukhona ukuthi isitoreji sebhethri sibalulekile yini. Kuwukuthi siyakuqonda yini esikuxazululayo ngempela-nokuthi yiziphi izinkinga ezintsha esizidalayo kule nqubo.
Inkinga Yegridi Efihlekile Yobuntekenteke
Amagridi kagesi esimanje asebenza ngesimiso esizwakala kungenangqondo: ukunikezwa kufanele kuhambisane nesidingo ngomzuzwana owodwa. Hhayi cishe. Akulinganiselwe ngaphezu kwamaminithi. Njalo nge-microsecond, ama-electron ageleza kugridi kufanele alingane nama-electron aphumayo, noma lonke uhlelo luqala ukuwohloka. Imvamisa iyashintshashintsha. Ama-voltage spikes noma amaconsi. Izisetshenziswa ziyalimala. Ezimweni ezimbi kakhulu, igridi iyawa ibe ukucisha kukagesi esifundeni.
Iminyaka eyikhulu, lesi senzo sokulinganisa besincike ezitshalweni zikaphethiloli wezinto ezimbiwa phansi ezingase zikhuphuke naphansi ngokukhipha umyalo. Izitshalo zegesi yemvelo zingashisa emizuzwini embalwa. Izitshalo zamalahle zingahle zibuyele emuva lapho isidingo sicwiliswa. Isistimu yayingenhle, kodwa yasebenza.
Khona-ke okuvuselelekayo kwashintsha yonke into. Amaphaneli elanga akhiqiza amandla amakhulu emini-ngokunembile lapho isidingo se-air conditioning sikhuphuka ehlobo kodwa hhayi lapho kudingeka ukushisisa ebusika. Amapulazi omoya angakhiqiza ngokugcwele ngo-3 AM lapho isidingo sifika phansi. I-International Energy Agency ilinganisela ukuthi ngaphandle kokugcinwa kwamandla, okuvuselelekayo okufika ku-40% womthamo wegridi kungadinga ukugcinwa komthamo kaphethiloli oyisipele we-100% ukuze kusingathwe lesi sikhathi.
Amasistimu okugcina amandla ebhethri axazulula lokhu kungafani kwesikhashana ngokuhlukanisa amandla lapho amandla ekhiqizwa kusukela lapho esetshenziswa. Bakhokhisa lapho isizukulwane sidlula isidingo futhi sikhipha lapho isidingo sidlula isizukulwane, sinikeza lokho onjiniyela abakubiza ngokuthi "i-arbitrage yesikhashana." Kodwa lo mqondo olula uvala inselelo yobunjiniyela eyinkimbinkimbi ngendlela exakile.
I-California Independent System Operator iphethe enye yamagridi athuthuke kakhulu emhlabeni. Ngomhla zingama-30 kuMbasa, 2024, babhekane nenkinga: iphutha elingalindelekile kusistimu yamandla esitoreji sebhethri ehlolwayo labangela amasistimu okuvikela kuwo wonke amamegawathi angu-498 wezinsiza ezisekelwe ku-inverter{4}. Amasistimu ebhethri, amapulazi elanga, nezinjini zomoya konke kukhubeke kokungaxhunyiwe ku-inthanethi ngesikhathi esisodwa{6}}ukwehluleka kwe-cascading okuveze ukuthi izinsiza zegridi yesimanje zixhumeke kanjani. Imikhuba emibi yokusebenzisa, ukugibela okungenele{8}}ngokuhlolwa kokusebenza, kanye nezingozi zokuthembeka kwesistimu kuzinsiza ezisekelwe ku-inverter{9}}zidale ubungozi obukade bungekho ngesikhathi sikaphethiloli.
Lokhu akukhona ukwehluleka kobuchwepheshe bebhethri isikhathi ngasinye. Kuyinqubo yokuvuthwa. Bonke ubuchwepheshe bengqalasizinda emikhulu{2}kusuka kojantshi besitimela ukuya kumanethiwekhi ezokuxhumana{3}budlule ebuhlungwini obufanayo bokukhula. Okwenza isitoreji sebhethri sihluke isivinini enyuka ngaso kanye nezigxobo ezihilelekile.
Umnotho Wehle Ngokushesha Kunanoma Yinoma Ibani Obekulindele
Eminyakeni emihlanu edlule, abangabazayo baphikisa ngokuthi ukugcinwa kwebhethri akusoze kwabiza-ukuncintisana nezitshalo eziphakeme kakhulu zegesi yemvelo. Lezo zingxabano azigugi kahle. Izindleko zebhethri ye-Lithium-ion zehle zisuka ngaphezu kokungu-$1,200 nge-kilowatt-ngehora ngo-2010 zaya cishe ku-$139 nge-kilowatt{9}}ngehora ngo-2023. Amasistimu okulondoloza ibhethri awusizo manje anganikeza{12}}umthamo wokuchithwa wamahora amabili noma{3} ngezindleko eziphansi {14}kunokwakha iziqongo ezintsha zegesi, ikakhulukazi uma sihlanganisa izindleko zikaphethiloli, imithetho yokukhipha umoya, kanye nokunakekelwa.
Izinombolo zixoxa indaba enzima. Imakethe yomhlaba wonke yokugcina amandla ebhethri ifinyelele ku- $ 20.36 billion ngo-2024 futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ku- $ 114.05 billion ngo-2032, ikhula cishe ngama-20% ngonyaka. I-United States iyodwa ifake ama-megawatt angu-37,143{9}}amahora esitoreji ngo-2024. I-Texas ne-California zaba u-61% walowo mthamo, kodwa ezinye izifundazwe ezingu-13 zengeze ukufaka okubalulekile{13}}ubufakazi bokuthi isitoreji akusesona isilingo sasogwini.
Kodwa izibalo ezihlanganisiwe zifihla ushintsho lwangempela: lonke uhlelo lwamandla okugcina ibhethri lusukile kuhlelo lokusebenza lwe-niche lwaya engqalasizinda ebalulekile. Ama-opharetha egridi abake babuka isitoreji njengokuzithandela manje sebesibheka njengesibopho ukuze igridi iqine njengoba kukhuphuka ukungena okuvuselelekayo. I-Economics isebenza kumazinga amathathu:
Amandla arbitrageimele isiphakamiso senani esiqonde kakhulu. Gcina ugesi uma amanani entengo ezitolo ezinkulu ephansi (imvamisa ngesikhathi sokukhiqizwa okuphezulu kwelanga noma umoya), ukhiphe lapho amanani enyuka (imvamisa phakathi neziqongo zakusihlwa). Ezimakethe ezinokuguquguquka kwentengo ephezulu njenge-ERCOT, opharetha besitoreji bangathatha amamajini abalulekile. Kodwa-ke, njengoba isitoreji esiningi siza ku-inthanethi, amathuba e-arbitrage acindezela{3}}umthelela wakudala wokugcwala kwemakethe ozophoqa opharetha ukuthi bahlukanise imali engenayo.
Izinkonzo ezisizayohlinzeka ngemali engenayo eqinile, ebikezelwayo. Amabhethri ahamba phambili ekulawuleni imvamisa, aphendula ngama-millisecond ukungalingani kwegridi izitshalo ze-fossil ezithatha amaminithi ukukulungisa. Bahlinzeka ngezindawo zokuphotha, ukwesekwa kwe-voltage, kanye nezinsizakalo zokudonsela phansi. Ukuthola okugunyaziwe kwe-California kuqondise{4}}amagigawathi angu-2 ubude-ubude besikhathi sokulondoloza-kudala isiqiniseko somthetho esenza amaphrojekthi akhokheleke. Ikhredithi yentela yokutshalwa kwezimali engu-30% yoMthetho Wokuncishiswa Kokwehla Kwamanani Emali yezinhlelo zokulondoloza ezizimele iqhubekisela phambili ukutshekisa ezomnotho.
Kugwenywe izindleko zamandlakubaluleke kakhulu ezinsizeni. Isistimu yamandla okugcina ibhethri ingahlehlisa noma iqede isidingo sokuthuthukiswa kokudlulisela, ukunwetshwa kwesiteshi esincane, noma umthamo wokukhiqiza omusha. Lapho i-Arizona Public Service ihlongoza ukwakha isitoreji sebhethri esikhundleni sesizinda esisha segesi, inketho yokugcina yonga abakhokhi bentela imali elinganiselwa ezigidini ezingu-150 zamaRandi ezindlekweni zengqalasizinda ezigwenyiwe. Phindaphinda lokho kulondoloza kumakhulukhulu ezinsiza, futhi ukugcinwa kwebhethri akugcini nje ukusebenza kodwa kuyaphoqa ngokwezezimali.
Nokho isibalo senzuzo siqukethe okuguquguqukayo okufihliwe. Ukonakaliswa kwebhethri kunciphisa umthamo ngo-1-2% ngonyaka, kufinyeze ubude bempilo obusebenzisekayo. Amasistimu okuphatha okushisayo asebenzisa amandla, anciphisa{7}}uhambo oluhamba kahle ukusuka ku-90% kuya kububanzi obusebenzayo obungu-85-87%. Okubaluleke kakhulu, imali engenayo incike ekwakhiweni kwemakethe-amanye amagridi avumela amabhethri ukuthi anqwabelanise imithombo yemali engenayo eminingi (i-arbitrage yamandla kanye nezinsiza ezihambisanayo), kuyilapho amanye ekhawulela ukubamba iqhaza.
Umphumela uba ukuthi ukugcinwa kwebhethri kwezomnotho kuhluka kakhulu ngendawo. Amaphrojekthi e-California, Texas, naseNew England angazuza izinzuzo ezikhangayo. Amaphrojekthi ezifundeni ezinokuguquguquka okuncane kwentengo noma imithetho evimbelayo yemakethe idonsa kanzima. Lokhu kungafani kwezindawo kuchaza ukuthi kungani ukusetshenziswa kwebhethri kuhlangana kakhulu ezifundeni ezimbalwa kunokuba kusakazeke ngokulinganayo.
Indida Yokuphepha: Iphephe Kunangaphambili, Iseyingozi Kakhulu
Yonke ingxoxo emayelana nokugcinwa kwebhethri ekugcineni ifika endaweni efanayo: ingozi yomlilo. Ukukhathazeka kusemthethweni. I-Lithium-i-ion thermal runaway{3}}i-cascading chemical reaction ekhiqiza ukushisa okunamandla namagesi angaba nobuthi{4}kungaba nzima kakhulu ukucisha. Ngenkathi amabhethri angu-15,000 e-nickel-manganese-e-cobalt esha e-Gateway Energy Storage, izicishamlilo zaqapha ukuqubuka{10}}kwezinsuku eziyisikhombisa. Umlilo kaMoss Landing wangoJanuwari 2025 waphoqa ukuthi abantu baphume amahora angama-24 futhi wadedela intuthu enobuthi ezindaweni zokuhlala.
Nansi indida: yonke isistimu yamandla okugcina ibhethri isiphephe kakhudlwana ngisho-nezehlakalo eziphakeme eziqhubeka ziba sematheni. Izinga lokwehluleka nge-gigawatt-ngehora ngalinye elisetshenzisiwe lehle kakhulu kusukela ngo-2020, ngokusho kwedatha ye-EPA. Isizathu siqondile{5}}amasistimu amadala ayentula imigomo yesimanje zokuphepha. I-Moss Landing yakhiwa ngaphambi kwamazinga e-NFPA 855 kanye nezidingo zokuhlola ze-UL 9540A zanda. I-Gateway isebenzise i-nickel endala-ye-manganese{11}}ikhemikhali ye-cobalt eyaziwa ngokuthi ayizinzile ngokwezinga lokushisa kune-lithium iron phosphate (LFP), manje esengamele ukufakwa okusha.
Izinhlelo zesimanje zokugcina amandla ebhethri zihlanganisa izendlalelo eziningi zokuphepha:
Iseli-lokuhlolwa kokusakazwa kwe-thermal runnaway propagation kuqinisekisa ukuthi uma iseli elilodwa lehluleka, umlilo awusabaleli kumaseli aseduze. Amasistimu okuphatha ibhethri aqapha izinkulungwane zamapharamitha ngomzuzwana -i-voltage, yamanje, izinga lokushisa, isimo sokushajwa{3}}futhi angahlukanisa amamojula onakalisiwe ngaphambi kokuthi kwenzeke ukuhluleka kokucasha. Ukuthuthukiswa kwedizayini ebonakalayo kufaka phakathi isikhala esikhulayo phakathi kwama-rack,{5}}izindawo ezivalekile ezingashi, namasistimu okungenisa umoya azinikele. Ezinye izinsiza manje zisebenzisa amasistimu e-water misting, nakuba ukusebenza kwawo{7}}esikalini somlilo we-lithium{8}}kusaxoxwa.
Nokho ukuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe akuqedanga ukumelana nomphakathi. Okungenani izifunda eziyi-15 zenze umthetho wokumisa isitoreji sebhethri ngo-2024-2025. Ukuphikiswa komphakathi kuvame ukugxila engozini yomlilo, kodwa ukukhathazeka okuyisisekelo kujula kakhulu: ukuntula ukulawula kwendawo ezinqumweni zendawo, ukuqeqeshwa okunganele kwabaphenduli bezimo eziphuthumayo, nokungathembani konjiniyela ababukela phansi izingozi. Ukuthambekela komkhakha wokuqhathanisa umlilo webhethri nokuqhuma kwezitshalo zegesi noma izinhlekelele zomlotha wamalahle akusizi-kuzwakala njengokuphambuka kunokuziphendulela.
Igebe phakathi kweqiniso lobunjiniyela kanye nombono womphakathi libalulekile ngoba linciphisa ukuthunyelwa. Iphrojekthi ebambezeleke abaphikisi bendawo isho ukuncishiswa kokungcoliswa kokungcola okubambezelekile, ukuthuthukiswa kokuthembeka kwegridi ukubambezeleka, kanye nokonga kwezindleko okubambezelekile. Ukuvala leli gebe kudinga ukubeka obala mayelana nezingozi ezinsalela, ukutshalwa kwezimali ekuqeqeshweni kwabaphenduli bokuqala, kanye nokuqiniswa okuqinile kwamazinga okuphepha kunokuqinisekisa okugcwele kokuthi ubuchwepheshe buphephe ngokuphelele.
I-Renewable Energy's Impossible Math Ngaphandle Kwesitoreji
I-Solar nomoya kuhlangene kukhiqize cishe u-14% kagesi womhlaba wonke ngo-2023. Izimo ezibeka ukufudumala ku-1.5℃zidinga ukuthi leso sibalo sifinyelele ku-60-70% ngo-2050. Inselele ayikona ukufaka amaphaneli elanga futhi izindleko zobuchwepheshe bezinjini zomoya zehle ngokwanele kangangokuthi umthamo ovuselelekayo ukhula ngokushesha. Inselele ukuthi kwenzekani lapho ilanga lishona nomoya ungasavunguzi.
Ijika ledada laseCalifornia liyibonisa kahle inkinga. Phakathi nemini, amandla elanga akhukhula igridi, ngezinye izikhathi adlule inani elidingekayo. Izintengo zikagesi wezitolo kwesinye isikhathi ziba zimbi{2}}izinsiza zikhokhela ezinye izifundazwe ukuthi zithathe amandla amaningi. Khona-ke ekushoneni kwelanga, ukuphuma kwelanga kuyawa njengoba nje isidingo sokuhlala sikhuphuka. Esikhaleni samahora amathathu, ama-opharetha wegridi kufanele anyuse amagigawathi ayi-10-15 esizukulwane esithunyelwayo ukuze avale igebe. Ngaphandle komthamo omkhulu wesitoreji, lelo gebe livalwa yizimboni zegesi yemvelo, kubukela phansi imigomo yokunciphisa ukungcola.
I-Clean Air Task Force ibale ukuthi ukufinyelela okuvuselelekayo okungu-80% e-California kuzodinga amamegawathi ayizigidi ezingu-9.6-amahora esitoreji samandla ukuze kusingathwe ukuhlukahluka kwesizini. Umthamo wamanje ofakiwe uyingxenyana yaleso sibalo. Izibalo ziba zimbi kakhulu ekungeneni okuphezulu okuvuselelekayo. Ukusuka kokungu-80% kuye ku-100% okuvuselelekayo akudingi u-25% wesitoreji esiningi-kungase kudinge u-200-300% ngaphezulu, ngoba ukususa izitshalo zokugcina zikaphethiloli kusho ukugcina amandla anele ukumboza izehlakalo zesimo sezulu sezinsuku eziningi lapho kokubili ukukhanya kwelanga nomoya wehla.
Isitoreji sebhethri sishintsha lesi sibalo sisuka kokungenzeki siye kobunzima nje. Amabhethri e-lithium-amahora amane{2}}e-ion angakwazi ukuguquguquka kwe-intraday bushelelezi, athwebule ilanga lasemini ukuze liphume phakathi neziqongo zakusihlwa. Azikwazi ukubhekana nesitoreji sesizini-ukushaja ehlobo ukuze ziphume ebusika-kodwa akudingekile. Indlela yephothifoliyo ehlanganisa isitoreji sebhethri nobunye ubuchwepheshe (i-hydro empontshiwe, umoya ocindezelwe, mhlawumbe i-hydrogen ekugcineni) ingabhekana nezikali zesikhathi ezihlukene.
Inani elisheshayo livumela ukungena okuphezulu okuvuselelekayo namuhla. Ucwaningo lubonisa ukuthi isitoreji sebhethri singabiza-ukusekela ngempumelelo kufika ku-40-50% wokungena okuvuselelekayo. Ngale kwalowo mkhawulo,-ubuchwepheshe bokugcina isikhathi eside noma{9}}ukukhiqizwa kwekhabhoni ephansi okuqinile (inuzi, i-geothermal, okungenzeka kube ukuhlanganisa) kuyadingeka. Kodwa ukuthola kusuka kugesi wanamuhla ongu-~30% ovuselelekayo ukuya ku-50% kuzomela inqubekelaphambili eyingqopha-mlando-futhi isitoreji sebhethri ubuchwepheshe obutholakala esikalini njengamanje ukwenza lokho kugxume.
I-Bottleneck Efihliwe: Amaketanga Okuhlinzeka Ngamaminerali
Wonke umuntu uxoxa ngomthamo webhethri. Bambalwa abaxoxa ngokuthi izinto zebhethri zivelaphi. I-lithium, i-cobalt, i-nickel, i-manganese, ne-graphite azivamile ngokwemibandela ye-geological, kodwa zigxile ezifundeni ezithile ezine-geopolitics eyinkimbinkimbi. I-China ilawula cishe u-80% womthamo wokucubungula i-lithium, naphezu kwezimayini cishe u-13% we-lithium eluhlaza. IDemocratic Republic of Congo ikhiqiza amaphesenti angama-70 e-cobalt yomhlaba, iningi lawo liphuma ezimayini ezinokukhathazeka okubhaliwe ngamalungelo abantu. Izimayini ze-nickel e-Indonesia nasePhilippines zibandakanya ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kwemvelo.
I-United States imayini cishe awekho amaminerali abalulekile adingekayo ukuze kukhiqizwe ibhethri{0}cishe u-3% we-lithium yomhlaba, ngaphansi kuka-1% we-cobalt. Njengoba isidingo samabhethri sikhuphuka, amanani alawa maminerali aseguquguquka. Izintengo ze-lithium carbonate zenyuke ngo-500% phakathi kuka-2020 no-2022 ngaphambi kokuphahlazeka ngo-75% ngo-2023-2024 njengoba ukukhiqizwa kwanda. Lokhu kuguquguquka kwentengo kudala izinselele zezimali zamaphrojekthi ebhethri, njengoba onjiniyela bengakwazi ukubikezela izindleko zebhethri izinyanga eziyi-18-24 lapho bethenga amathuluzi.
Inkinga ye-supply chain idlulela ngale kwempahla eluhlaza. Ukwenziwa kwebhethri kudinga izindawo ezikhethekile ezinokulawulwa kwekhwalithi eyeqisayo. Ukukhubazeka okungabekezelelwa ku-elekthronikhi yabathengi kuba yinhlekelele kugridi{2}}yezinhlelo zokusebenza zesikali. Uphenyo lwaseNingizimu Korea mayelana nokusha kwamabhethri luthole amaphutha okukhiqiza kwamanye amayunithi, nakuba abakhiqizi bamabhethri bakuphikisile okutholakele. Iphuzu alikona ukusola kodwa ukuqaphela ukuthi ukukala ukukhiqizwa kwebhethri ngo-10-20x phakathi neshumi leminyaka kumema izinselele zokulawula ikhwalithi.
Amasu amaningana anganciphisa ingcindezi ye-supply chain:
Ukuhlukahluka kweKhemistrykunciphisa ukuncika kumaminerali athile. Amabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate (LFP) aqeda i-cobalt ne-nickel, esebenzisa i-iron ne-phosphate eningi esikhundleni salokho. I-LFP isivele ibusa ukufakwa okusha e-China futhi izuza isabelo semakethe emhlabeni jikelele. Amabhethri e-sodium-eionion ekugcineni angangena esikhundleni se-lithium ukuze agcinwe endaweni emile, esebenzisa amanzi olwandle-esuselwe e-sodium. Kodwa-ke, lezi zindlela zinomthamo omncane wamandla ophansi, odinga izinyathelo ezinkulu-i-tradeoff esebenzela ukugcinwa kwegridi kodwa hhayi izimoto zikagesi.
Ukugaywa kabushainganikeza u-10-20% wesidingo sebhethri ngo-2040 uma isikali sikalwe ngempumelelo. Ukugaywa kabusha kwe-lithium{6}}yamanje kubuyisela ngaphansi kuka-5% wamabhethri emhlabeni jikelele, kodwa ubuchwepheshe buyathuthuka. Izinkampani ezifana ne-Redwood Materials zakha izindawo zokugaywa kabusha zesikali sezimboni ezingakhipha futhi zihlanze izinto zebhethri ukuze ziphinde zisetshenziswe. Umnotho uyathuthuka njengoba amanani ebhethri enyuka futhi namanani ezinto ezingabalulekile akhuphuka.
Izinhlelo zokusebenza zokuphila-zesibilinwebisa ukusetshenziswa kwebhethri ngaphambi kokugaywa kabusha. Amabhethri ezimoto zikagesi ngokuvamile agcina umthamo ongu-70-80% uma ephuma ezimotweni-anganele ukusetshenziswa kwezimoto kodwa anele ukugcina umile. Indawo yebhethri yempilo yesibili ye-Redwood Energy engu-63-megawatt-ihora ibonisa umqondo esikalini. Kodwa-ke, ukuhlola amabhethri asetshenzisiwe ukuze aphephe kanye nokuhlola ngokunembile ubude bempilo obusele kuhlala kuyinselele yobuchwepheshe.
Ukukhiqizwa kwasekhayayezimbiwa ezibalulekile zinganciphisa ubungozi bokuthengwa kwempahla kodwa zibhekane nezinselelo zokuvumela imvelo. Ukuvula izimayini ezintsha ze-lithium e-Nevada, e-Arkansas, noma eNyakatho Carolina kuzothatha iminyaka futhi kubhekane nokuphikiswa kwendawo ngokusetshenziswa kwamanzi nokuphazamiseka komhlaba. Ukushuba kwesimo phakathi kwezinhloso zokuphakwa okusheshayo nezimfuneko zokuvikelwa kwemvelo akukaxazululwa.
Iqiniso elingemnandi liwukuthi ukukhipha ikhabhoni kugridi kudinga ukumbiwa nokucutshungulwa kwezimbiwa okukhulu. Abasekeli bebhethri ababeka isitoreji njengobuchwepheshe bezemvelo kuphela kufanele babhekane neqiniso lokuthi uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka lubandakanya izimayini, ukucubungula, nokukhiqiza ngekhabhoni ebalulekile kanye nezinyathelo zemvelo. Umbuzo akukhona ukuthi amabhethri anezindleko zemvelo-anazo{3}}kodwa ukuthi lezo zindleko zincane yini kunokuqhubeka nokushisa izibaso ezimbiwa phansi. Impendulo icishe ibe yebo, kodwa ukuqhathanisa akufani-nohlangothi olulodwa njengoba ngezinye izikhathi amaqembu akhulumela ephakamisa.
Okushiwo Amahora Amane Okugcina Empeleni
Imakethe ibika sonke isitoreji sebhethri ngamahora-amahora, kodwa leso sibalo sivala umkhawulo obalulekile: ubude besikhathi. Ukufakwa okuningi kwebhethri{2}}kwesikali segridi kunikeza amahora angu-2-4 okukhishwa ngamandla alinganiselwe. Uhlelo lwamahora angu-100-megawatt/400-megawatts lungaletha ama-megawatt ayi-100 amahora amane, noma ama-megawatt angu-50 amahora ayisishiyagalombili, ngaphambi kokuba luphele.
Lo mkhawulo wesikhathi ubalulekile ngoba igridi idinga ubude bezikhathi ezihluke kakhulu:
Imizuzwana kuya emaminithini: Ukulawulwa kwemvamisa, ukuphendula ekuguquguqukeni kwe-microsecond ukuze kugcinwe igridi izinzile. Amabhethri ahamba phambili kulokhu, aphendula ngokushesha kakhulu kunanoma iyiphi imboni kaphethiloli.
Amaminithi kuya emahoreni: Ukugijima ukumboza ukuphakama kwesidingo sakusihlwa noma ukuqala kwasekuseni. Amabhethri-amahora amane akuphatha kahle lokhu, yingakho esebenza kwezohwebo namuhla.
Amahora kuya ezinsukwini: Ihlanganisa izikhathi ezinwetshiwe zesizukulwane esincane esivuselelekayo, njengesistimu{0}}yezinsuku eziningi zesiphepho. Amabhethri-amahora amane awanele. Uzodinga 50-100+ amahora angu-megawatt-imegawathi ngayinye yomthamo{6}}onqabela ngokomnotho ngezindleko zamanje ze-lithium{7}}ze-ion.
Izinsuku zonyaka: Ukugcina amandla elanga ehlobo ukuze kushise ubusika, noma amandla omoya ekwindla ngesidingo sentwasahlobo. Akwenzeki ngokobuchwepheshe ngamabhethri nganoma yiziphi izindleko ezibonwayo.
Ubude besikhathi-amahora amane bubonisa ukuthuthukiswa komnotho. Ukuphinda kabili umthamo wesitoreji ukusuka emahoreni amabili ukuya emahoreni amane kwenyusa izindleko zesistimu cishe ngo-40-60%, njengoba amaseli ebhethri engawona izindleko. Ukuphinda kabili emahoreni ayisishiyagalombili kwengeza amanye ama-40-60%. Kwesinye isikhathi, obunye ubuchwepheshe (i-hydro epompeliwe, umoya ocindezelwe, okungenzeka kube yi-hydrogen) bubiza kakhulu.
Lo mkhawulo ubumba isu lokusebenzisa. Amabhethri athatha indawo ngempumelelo yezitshalo zegesi yemvelo ezisebenza amahora angamakhulu ambalwa ngonyaka phakathi nokuphakama kwesidingo. Okwamanje azikwazi ukushintsha ukukhiqizwa kwe-baseload noma ukuphatha isomiso esivuselelekayo isikhathi eside. Izinsiza ezakha amagridi angu-100% avuselelekayo kumele:
Yakha ngokweqile umthamo ovuselelekayo kakhulu, ukwamukela ukuthi ukukhiqizwa ngokweqile ngesikhathi sezimo ezivumayo kuzoncishiswa
Sebenzisa{0}}ubuchwepheshe besitoreji sesikhathi eside busathuthukiswa
Gcina amandla okukhiqiza aqinile (inuzi, i-geothermal, i-biogas)
Yamukela ukuthi ukuzuza i-10-20% yokugcina ye-decarbonization kuzobiza kakhulu kunama-80% okuqala.
Ucwaningo lwamabhethri-obude besikhathi luyaqhubeka. Amabhethri e-ayoni-athembisa ukukhishwa kwehora elingu-100+ ngezindleko ezincintisana ne-lithium-ion, kodwa ahlala angaphambi-ezentengiso. Amabhethri agelezayo angakala ubude besikhathi ngokungeza amathangi e-electrolyte engeziwe, kodwa imikhawulo yokuminyana kwamandla idinga izinyathelo ezinkulu. Isitoreji esishisayo (izinto zokushisisa noma zokupholisa ukuze sigcine amandla) sisebenzela izinhlelo ezithile kodwa asifanele ukugcinwa kukagesi okuvamile.
Ukuhlola okuqotho ukuthi isitoreji sebhethri sixazulula ukuhlanganisa okuvuselelekayo kufika mhlawumbe ekungeneni kwegridi okungama-60-70%. Ngaphandle kwalokho, sizodinga ubuchwepheshe obuhlukile-noma samukele izindleko eziphakeme zokususa ikhabhoni okusele.
I-Business Model Evolution: Ukusuka Kwempahla Kuya Kusevisi
Amaphrojekthi wangaphambi kwesikhathi wokugcina ibhethri alandele imodeli elula: ukwakha indawo enkulu, ukusayina inkontileka yomthamo nensiza, futhi uthole imali engenayo engashintshi. Leyo modeli ithuthuka ngokushesha njengoba izimakethe zivuthwa futhi izingcindezi zokuncintisana zikhula.
Ubunikazi benkampani yangaphandle-manje bumele u-48.2% wokufakwa emhlabeni jikelele, ngokuya ngedatha yemakethe yango-2024. Kunokuba izinsiza zibe namabhethri ngokuqondile, abakhiqizi bamandla abazimele, onjiniyela abavuselelekayo, noma izinkampani zesitoreji ezikhethekile zakha futhi zisebenzise amasistimu, zithengisela izinsiza kuzinsiza kanye nabaqhubi begridi. Lolu shintsho lubonisa lokho okwenzeka elanga nasemoyeni{5}}ubunikazi obuhlakazekile njengoba isigaba sempahla sikhula kanye nokuxhaswa ngezimali kwaba khona.
Imodeli yemali engenayo isikhule yaba yinkimbinkimbi kakhulu. Kunokuba bathole imali ngesevisi eyodwa, o-opharetha manje "banqwabelanisa" imifudlana eminingi yemali engenayo:
I-Arbitrage yamandla (ukuthenga okuphansi, ukuthengisa okuphezulu)
Izinsizakalo zokulawula imvamisa
Ama-spinning reserves kanye nomthamo wokusekelayo
Usizo lokuminyana kokudlulisela
Izinkokhelo zekhono lokutholakala
Amandla okuqalisa omnyama (okusiza ukuqalisa kabusha igridi ngemva kokucisha okukhulu)
Ama-opharetha athuthukile asebenzisa ama-algorithms okufunda komshini ukuze alungiselele ukuthunyelwa kwesibili-ngo{1}}kwesibili, ukulinganisa izinjongo eziqhudelanayo kuzo zonke izimakethe eziningi. Nokho, lobu bunzima budala imigoqo yokungena. Izinsiza ezincane noma omasipala bayazabalaza ukuhamba ezimakethe zikagesi wezitolo ezinkulu, benikeza izinzuzo kubasebenzisi abakhulu, abasezingeni eliphezulu abanobuchwepheshe bokuhweba.
Ngemuva{{0}kokusetshenziswe{1}}kumamitha{2}}amabhethri afakwe ezindaweni zentengiso, zezimboni, noma zokuhlala esikhundleni segridi yosizo-amele ingxenye-ekhula ngokushesha kakhulu. Lawa masistimu ahlinzeka:
Ukuncishiswa kwezindleko: Amazinga kagesi wezentengiso ngokuvamile ahlanganisa izindleko zokufunwa ngokusekelwe ekusetshenzisweni okuphezulu. Ibhethri lingashefa lezo ziqongo, zehlise izikweletu zanyanga zonke ngo-20-40% kwamanye amakhasimende.
Amandla ekhophi yasenqolobaneni: Izikhungo ezibucayi (izikhungo zedatha, izibhedlela, ukukhiqiza) zingagcina ukusebenza ngesikhathi sokucima kwegridi. Lolu hlelo lokusebenza lukhuthaze ukutholwa kwezindawo zokuhlala ezifundeni ezinamagridi angathembekile noma isimo sezulu esibi kakhulu.
Ukusebenzisa i-Solar{0}}: Abanikazi bezindlu abane-solar esophahleni bangagcina isizukulwane esiningi sasemini ukuze sisetshenziswe kusihlwa, banciphise ukuncika kwegridi. Isitoreji samabhethri ezindawo zokuhlala sikhule ngo-57% ngo-2024, ngamamegawathi angaphezu kuka-1,250 afakwe e-United States kuphela.
Imvelo esabalalisiwe yengemuva-ye{1}}yesitoreji samamitha idala izinzuzo zesistimu{2}}zezinga. Izigidi zamabhethri amancane zingahlanganiswa ukuze zinikeze izinsizakalo zegridi ngokusebenzisa izimboni zamandla ezibonakalayo, ezithunyelwa ngokuhlanganyela ukuze ziziphathe njengesikhungo esikhulu esimaphakathi. Nokho, ukuxhumanisa lezi zinsiza kudinga izinkundla zesofthiwe eziyinkimbinkimbi nezinhlaka zokulawula ezivumela izinqubomgomo zokuhlanganisa{5}}izindawo eziningi eziye zaphuza ukuzisebenzisa.
Izindlela zezimali nazo sezishintshile. Amabhethri okuhlala aya ngokuya elandela imodeli yokuqashisa ngelanga, lapho amakhasimende ekhokha imali yanyanga zonke kunokuthenga amasistimu ngokuqondile. Izinhlaka-zobunikazi benkampani yangaphandle zivumela abatshalizimali bokulingana kwentela ukuthi benze imali ngamakhredithi entela yenhlangano ngempumelelo kakhulu kunabanikazi bezindlu ngabanye. Ibhethri-njenge-i-amamodeli esevisi ayavela lapho amakhasimende ekhokhela amandla ekhophi yasenqolobaneni noma izinsizakalo zokunciphisa izikweletu ngaphandle kokuba umnikazi wezisetshenziswa.
Ubunkimbinkimbi bemodeli yebhizinisi buzokhula kuphela njengoba izimakethe zikhula. Abaqhubi abaphumelelayo bazodinga ubuchwepheshe ekuhwebeni kwamandla, ekuthuthukisweni kwempahla, ukuthobela imithetho, kanye nesevisi yamakhasimende{1}}ikhono elihluke kakhulu kunokwakha nje ukufaka amabhethri.
Ukuhlanganiswa Kwegridi: Inselele Enganakiwe
Ukwakha izindawo zebhethri kuyingxenye elula. Ukuwaxhuma kugridi ukuze empeleni athuthukise ukwethembeka yilapho amaphrojekthi evama ukukhubeka. Uphenyo lweWestern Electricity Coordinating Council mayelana nokwehluleka kwamabhethri kwango-2022 kuhlonze "izindlela zokusebenzisa kabi amandla" njengeqhaza elikhulu ekusebenzeni okungathembekile. Amasistimu awazange ahlolwe ngokwanele ngaphambi kokuba abe bukhoma. Izilungiselelo zokuvikela azizange zihlanganiswe kahle nokusebenza kwegridi. Umphumela waba amabhethri akhubeke engaxhunyiwe ku-inthanethi phakathi nezimo eziqondile obekufanele ziziphathe.
Inselele yokuhlanganisa inobukhulu obuningi:
Ukusebenza kwe-inverter: Amabhethri akhipha i-direct current (DC), kodwa igridi isebenza ku-alternating current (AC). Ama-inverters aguqula phakathi kwalokhu okubili, kodwa azisa izinkinga zawo. Ngesikhathi sokuphazamiseka kwegridi, ama-inverters kufanele "agibele" ngokuphambuka kwama-voltage namafrikhwensi ngaphandle kokunqamula. I-inverter yangaphambi kwesikhathi{3}izinsiza ezisuselwa ku-inverter (ilanga, umoya, amabhethri) ngezinye izikhathi zaziba nezilungiselelo zokuvikela ezibucayi kakhulu, ezibenza bahambe bengaxhunyiwe ku-inthanethi phakathi nemicimbi emincane yegridi. Ukubuyekeza izilungiselelo ze-inverter kanye nokuthuthukisa okokugibela{5}}ngamakhono kudinga ukuxhumanisa ama-opharetha ebhethri, abakhiqizi be-inverter, nama-opharetha egridi{6}}inqubo ehlala ingahambisani kuwo wonke amaphrojekthi.
Ukulibaziseka komugqa wokuxhumana: Ukusalela emuva kwamaphrojekthi avuselelekayo nawokulondoloza afuna ukuxhunywa kwegridi kuqhume. Amanye amaphrojekthi alinda iminyaka engu-3-5 ngezifundo zokuxhumanisa nokugunyazwa. Inqubo ibandakanya ukuhlaziya ukuthi iphrojekthi ngayinye ikuthinta kanjani ukuhamba kwamandla, ukuzinza kwe-voltage, nezimo zamaphutha kuyo yonke igridi. Njengoba amaphrojekthi amaningi exhumeka, lezi zifundo ziba nzima kakhulu. Ukulungisa kabusha izinqubo zokuxhumaniseka ngokungangabazeki kubaluleke njengobuchwepheshe ngokwabo ukuze kusheshiswe ukuthunyelwa.
Ukulawula nokuxhumana: Ama-opharetha egridi adinga ukubonakala{0}}kwesikhathi sangempela esimweni sokushajwa kwebhethri, umthamo otholakalayo, kanye nesimo sokuthumela. Lokhu kudinga izimiso zokuxhumana ezisezingeni kanye nezinyathelo zokuphepha ku-inthanethi ukuze kuvinjelwe abalingisi abanonya ekufinyeleleni izinhlelo zokulawula igridi. Imboni yenze inqubekelaphambili, kodwa ubuthakathaka busekhona. Umbiko woMnyango Wezamandla wango-2023 uhlonze ukuvikeleka ku-inthanethi njengengcuphe engaziswanga ngokwanele yezinsiza zamandla asabalalisiwe kuhlanganisa namabhethri.
Imithetho yokubamba iqhaza kwemakethe: Ama-opharetha wegridi kufanele abuyekeze imithetho yemakethe ukuze avumele amabhethri ukuthi ahlinzeke ngamasevisi abakwazi ukulethwa ngokobuchwepheshe. Ezinye izimakethe zisakhawulela amabhethri ekunikezeni amandla kanye namasevisi ahambisanayo, nakuba amabhethri engakwenza kokubili kokubili. Ezinye izimakethe azinxeshezeli-izinsiza eziphendula ngokushesha ngezinzuzo zesivinini ezizinikezayo. Regulatory reform lags ubuchwepheshe amakhono.
Inselele yokuhlanganisa idala isimo esingesihle: sinobuchwepheshe bokwakha i-gigawatt-isikali sokulondoloza ibhethri, kodwa sisazama ukuthola ukuthi singasihlanganisa kanjani ngempumelelo phakathi{1}}nezakhiwo zegridi ezindala eziklanywe ezindaweni ezimaphakathi ezikhiqiza uphethiloli. Ushintsho aludingi nje ukwakha amabhethri kodwa ngokuyisisekelo ukucabanga kabusha ukuthi amagridi asebenza kanjani.
I-Recycling Reckoning
Lonke ibhethri elifakwe namuhla ekugcineni lizodinga ukulahlwa noma ukugaywa kabusha. Uma kubhekwa amanani okusetshenziswa-amagigawathi angu-12.3 engezwe e-United States ngo-2024 kuphela-sibheka amakhulu ezinkulungwane zamathani amabhethri asetshenzisiwe phakathi neminyaka eyi-10-15. Ingqalasizinda yamanje yokugaywa kabusha ayanele ngokudabukisayo.
Cishe kuphela u-5% wamabhethri e-lithium-ioni emhlabeni asetshenziswa kabusha namuhla. Iningi ligcina selisendaweni yokulahla imfucuza, limoshe izinto ezibalulekile futhi lidale izingozi ezingase zibe khona emvelweni. Ezomnotho azikuthandi ukugaywa kabusha{4}}izintengo zezinto ezingakaze zibonwe beziphansi ngokwanele ukuthi ukugaywa kabusha akukwazanga ukuncintisana. Kodwa-ke, njengoba amanani ebhethri enyuka nezindleko zezimayini zikhuphuka, umnotho uyashintsha.
Ukugaywa kabusha kwebhethri okusebenzayo kubhekene nezinselelo ezimbalwa:
Iqoqo Logistics: Amabhethri ayasinda, angaba yingozi ukuthutha, futhi asabalele ezindaweni eziningi. Ngokungafani namapulazi elanga aphakathi nendawo, amasistimu ebhethri okuhlala azodinga amanethiwekhi okuhlelwa kabusha ukuze aqoqe futhi ahlanganise amabhethri asetshenzisiwe. Izindleko nobunkimbinkimbi bale nethiwekhi kusalokhu kungaxazululiwe.
Ukukhathazeka ngokuphepha: Amabhethri asetshenzisiwe asengaqukatha ukushajwa okukhulu futhi angase onakaliswe noma onakaliswe ngezindlela ezandisa ingozi yomlilo. Izisebenzi eziphatha amabhethri asetshenzisiwe zidinga ukuqeqeshwa okubanzi nezinto zokuphepha. Imililo eminingi yezikhungo zokugaywa kabusha ibonise ukuthi lezi zingozi azizona itiyori.
Ukuhlukahluka kobuchwepheshe: Amakhemikhali ebhethri ahlukene adinga izinqubo ezihlukene zokugaywa kabusha. Isikhungo esithuthukiselwe amabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate asikwazi ukucubungula kahle amabhethri e-nickel-manganese{2}}e-cobalt futhi ngokuphambene nalokho. Njengoba izinto ezithandwayo zamakhemikhali zishintsha, ingqalasizinda yokuvuselela eyakhelwe uhlobo olulodwa ingase iphelelwe yisikhathi.
Izidingo zokuhlanzeka: Izinto ezitholiwe kumele zihlangabezane nezindinganiso zekhwalithi zokwenziwa kwebhethri. Imizamo yangaphambi kwesikhathi yokwenza kabusha ikhiqize izinto ezingcoliswe kakhulu ukuze ziphinde zisetshenziswe kumabhethri amasha. Ukuthuthukisa ubumsulwa kuyilapho ugcina izindleko zinengqondo kudinga ukucubungula okuyinkimbinkimbi{2}}ubuchwepheshe obusathuthuka.
Naphezu kwalezi zinselele, umnotho wokwenza kabusha izinto uthuthuka ngokushesha. Izintengo ze-lithium zikhuphuka ngo-2021-}ze-2022 zenze i-lithium egaywe kabusha yathandeka ngokwezomnotho. Intengo ephezulu ye-Cobalt nokukhathazeka kokuziphatha mayelana nezimayini kwenza ukugaywa kabusha kukhange. Izinkampani ezimbalwa zakha izindawo ezinkulu ezikwazi ukucubungula izinkulungwane zamathani amabhethri minyaka yonke, zisebenzisa i-hydrometallurgical noma izinqubo zokugaywa kabusha eziqondile ezibuyisa u-95%+ wezinto zokwakha.
Umbuzo wenqubomgomo obalulekile ukuthi kuyagunyazwa ukugaywa kabusha ngaphambi kokuba ezomnotho zikuthethelele ngokugcwele. Imithetho enwetshiwe yesibopho somkhiqizi{1}}edinga abakhiqizi ukuthi baxhase ngezimali-yokuqeda{3}}kokugaywa kabusha kwempilo{4}kungase kuqale ukuthuthukiswa kwengqalasizinda. Kodwa-ke, ukungeza izindleko ngesikhathi sesigaba sokuthunyelwa kungase kubambezele ukutholwa lapho ukukala okusheshayo kubaluleke kakhulu. Isikhathi sokusebenza kabusha sidinga ukulinganisa{7}}ukusimama kwesikhathi eside ngokumelene{8}}nemigomo yokusebenzisa eseduze.
imibuzo ejwayelekile ukubuzwa
Amasistimu wamandla okugcina ibhethri ahlala isikhathi eside kangakanani ngaphambi kokudinga ukushintshwa?
Igridi-yesikali se-lithium{1}}amasistimu wamandla ebhethri ye-ion ngokuvamile ahlinzeka ngeminyaka engu-10-yeminyaka engu-15 yesevisi ngaphambi kokuba ukuwohloka komthamo kuwenze angakhokhisi ekusetshenzisweni kwawo okuyinhloko. Nokho, ukuphila okusebenzisekayo kuncike kakhulu emaphethini okugibela ibhayisikili, ukujula kokukhishwa, namazinga okushisa okusebenza. Amasistimu akhipha ngokuphelele kabili ngosuku azokwehla ngokushesha kunalawo enza imijikelezo engashoni yokulawula imvamisa. Amasistimu okulawula okushisayo agcina amabhethri emazingeni okushisa afanele anganweba isikhathi sokuphila ngo-20-30%. Iziqinisekiso eziningi zezentengiso ziqinisekisa umthamo ongu-60-70% osele ngemva kweminyaka eyi-10 noma umkhawulo oshiwo wokukhipha. Ngemuva kokuphela kwesevisi eyinhloko, amabhethri anomthamo osele ongu-70-80% angathola izinhlelo zokusebenza zesibili ngaphambi kokuvuselelwa kabusha.
Ingabe ukugcinwa kwebhethri kungasiqeda ngokuphelele isidingo sezitshalo zamandla kaphethiloli?
Hhayi ngobuchwepheshe bamanje. Amabhethri-amahora amane angakwazi ukuphatha ukuhluka kwamandla avuselelekayo nsuku zonke futhi amiselele izitshalo eziphakeme kakhulu zegesi yemvelo esebenza phakathi nokukhuphuka kwesidingo. Kodwa-ke, awakwazi ukuhlinzeka ngesitoreji sesizini noma ukumboza{3}izikhathi zezinsuku eziningi zomoya omncane kanye nokuphuma kwelanga. Ukuthola ugesi ovuselelekayo ongu-100% kuzodinga ukwakhiwa ngokweqile kwamandla okukhiqiza ngokuncishiswa okukhulu, ukuthuthukiswa{6}}kobuchwepheshe bokugcina isikhathi eside obungakahwebi okwamanje, ukugcina inkampani ethile{7}}ikhiqiza ikhabhoni ephansi njengenuzi noma i-geothermal, noma ukwamukela izindleko eziphakeme kakhulu. Ubuchwepheshe bamanje bebhethri bungasekela ukungena okungu-60-}70% okuvuselelekayo ngendlela ephumelelayo, kodwa ukususa u-20-30% wokugcina wokukhiqizwa kwezinto ezimbiwa phansi kuveza izinselele ezihlukahlukene ezidinga izixazululo ezihlukene.
Yini eyenza kube nzima ukucisha umlilo wamabhethri uma kuqhathaniswa nemililo evamile?
I-Lithium-ion thermal runaway ihlanganisa ukusabela kwamakhemikhali ngaphakathi ebhethrini ezikhiqiza umoya-mpilo wayo, okusho ukuthi awudingi umoya wangaphandle ukuze ubambe umlilo. Izindlela ezijwayelekile zokucisha umlilo ezisebenza ngokususwa komoyampilo noma ukupholisa ziba ncane ukusebenza kahle. Amabhethri angaphinda asebenze amahora noma izinsuku ngemuva kokucisha, njengoba ukushisa kukhula ngaphakathi kwamaseli angalimele aseduze nendawo eyonakele. Iminyango yezomlilo ngokuvamile isebenzisa isu lokuzivikela{4}}eliqukethe umlilo nokuvimbela ukusabalala kunokucindezelwa okunamandla-ngenkathi ivumela amabhethri ukuthi aqede amandla ayo. Izinsiza zesimanje zifaka amasistimu okubona ukuze kubonwe imicimbi eshisayo ngaphambi kokuthi kuqhamuke-umlilo esikalini, kodwa uma umshini oshisayo udlula kumaseli amaningi, ukucindezela kuba inselele kakhulu.
Ingabe amasistimu ebhethri okuhlala afanele ukutshalwa kwezimali kubanikazi bezindlu abajwayelekile?
Ezomnotho ziyahlukahluka kakhulu ngendawo kanye nezimo zomuntu ngamunye. Ezindaweni ezinamanani aphezulu kagesi, isikhathi-so{2}}sokusetshenziswa kwentengo, noma amagridi angathembekile, amabhethri anganikeza imbuyiselo yeminyaka engu-5-8 ngokulondoloza izikweletu kanye nenani lamandla eliyisipele. I-California, Hawaii, kanye nezingxenye zeNyakatho-mpumalanga zinezomnotho ezivumayo. Ezifundeni ezinamanani aphansi, aphansi kagesi kanye nesevisi ethembekile, amabhethri awavamile ukuphuma ngembuyiselo yezimali yodwa. Amakhredithi entela yombuso (30% wezindleko zesistimu) kanye nezinzuzo zezwe zinganikeza isibalo esihle. Kodwa-ke, abanikazi bezindlu abaningi bayawazisa amandla ayisipele kanye nokuzimela kwamandla ngale kwembuyiselo yezimali emsulwa. Isibalo kufanele sifake kokubili ukonga imali kanye nezinzuzo okungezona ezezezimali njengokusimama ngesikhathi sokucima kanye nokunciphisa ukuncika kwegridi.
Amasistimu okugcina amandla ebhethri azithinta kanjani izikweletu zikagesi kubathengi abangasebenzisi amabhethri?
Imiphumela iyahlukahluka ngemodeli yokusebenzisa. I-Utility{{1}isitoreji segridi esiphethwe ngokuvamile sinikeza isistimu{2}}izinzuzo ezibanzi{3}}isidingo esincishisiwe sezitshalo eziphakeme kakhulu, ukuthuthukiswa kokudlulisela okuhlehlisiwe, ukuhlanganiswa okungcono okuvuselelekayo{4}}okunezindleko eziphansi zabo bonke abakhokhi bentela. Ucwaningo luphakamisa ukuthi amabhethri angehlisa izindleko zikagesi ngo-5-15% uma kuqhathaniswa nezimo ngaphandle kwesitoreji. Kodwa-ke, izindleko zokuthumela kusenesikhathi zingavela njengoba izinga likhuphuka ngaphambi kokuba izinzuzo zenzeke ngokugcwele. Ngemuva{10}}kumamitha{12}amabhethri okuhlala nawentengiso asetshenziselwa ukuphathwa kwezikweletu awazithinti ngokuqondile amanye amakhasimende, nakuba ukwamukela okusakazekile kushintsha amaphrofayela omthwalo wegridi ngezindlela ezingazuzisa ukusebenza kahle kwesistimu. Amabhethri ezinkampani zangaphandle abamba iqhaza ezimakethe zezitolo ezinkulu angacindezela ukukhuphuka kwentengo ngesikhathi semicimbi yesidingo esiphezulu, ahlinzeke ngezinzuzo zomthengi ezingaqondile ngokusebenzisa imiphumela yemakethe yokuncintisana.
Ingabe amabhethri emoto kagesi asetshenzisiwe angasebenza ngempela kuzinhlelo zokusebenza zokugcina igridi?
Ukusebenza kobuchwepheshe kufakazelwe{{0}izikhungo eziningi manje zisebenzisa{1}}amabhethri e-EV esibili. Amabhethri e-EV ayeke ukusebenza ngo-70-80% womthamo wangempela ahlala efanelekile isitoreji esinganyakazi lapho isisindo nevolumu ingasebenzi khona. Inselelo eyezomnotho kunezobuchwepheshe. Ukuhlola ibhethri ngalinye elisetshenzisiwe umthamo wangempela, impilo yomjikelezo osele, nokuphepha kuthatha isikhathi nemali. Amaphakethe avela ezimotweni ezahlukene asebenzisa amakhemikhali ahlukene kanye nezakhiwo, okwenza kube nzima ukuhlanganisa. Imibuzo yewaranti nesibopho iyaphakama uma amabhethri asetshenzisiwe ehluleka noma abangela izigameko zokuphepha. Kodwa-ke, njengoba umthamo webhethri ukhula futhi nezindleko zezinto ezingakaze zibonwe zikhuphuka, umnotho{11}}wokusebenzisa impilo yesibili uyathuthuka. Izinkampani ezifana ne-Redwood Energy zikhombisa ukusebenza kwezentengiselwano esikalini, ziphakamisa ukuthi izinhlelo zokusebenza zempilo yesibili zizoba umkhuba ojwayelekile kunokuba amaphrojekthi wokuhlola.
Kwenzekani kumasistimu okugcina ibhethri ngesikhathi sezehlakalo zesimo sezulu esibi?
Ukusebenza kuncike ohlotsheni lomcimbi kanye nesakhiwo sendawo. Ukubanda okudlulele kunciphisa umthamo webhethri kanye nokusebenza kahle kokushaja/ukukhipha-i-lithium{2}}i-ion ingalahlekelwa amandla angu-20-40% ngaphansi kwezingaqhwa. Ukushisa okudlulele kusheshisa ukuwohloka futhi kwandisa ingozi yomlilo uma amasistimu okulawula okushisayo ehluleka. Izikhukhula zingalimaza izinhlelo zikagesi futhi zidale izingozi zokuphepha. Kodwa-ke, izindawo eziklanywe kahle zifaka phakathi{8}}izindawo ezivaliwe ezilawulwa yisimo sezulu ezigcina amabhethri emazingeni okushisa afanelekile, izisekelo eziphakeme{12}}ezindaweni ezijwayele ukukhukhula, namasistimu okuvalwa kwezimo eziphuthumayo. Ngesikhathi sokuqhwa kwe-Texas ngo-February 2021, ezinye izinsiza zebhethri zehlulekile ngenxa yokungangeni kahle kwasebusika, kuyilapho amasistimu aklanywe kahle aqhubeka nokusebenza. Okubalulekile ukuthi izidingo zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu kufanele zifakwe ekwakhiweni nasekwakheni{14}}ukuvikela ukulungisa kabusha ngemva kokufaka kuyabiza futhi akusebenzi kahle. Izikhungo ezisezifundeni{15}ezijwayeleke kakhulu nezivunguvungu manje zifaka izindawo ezivalekile ezimelana nomoya namandla ayisipele wamasistimu okulawula abalulekile.
Ingabe amasistimu okugcina amandla ebhethri empeleni anciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni noma avele awasuse?
Uma amabhethri egcina amandla avuselelekayo abengancishiswa futhi awakhiphe esikhundleni sokuphehla uphethiloli, anciphisa ngokuphelele ukukhishwa kwensalela. Ucwaningo lubonisa amabhethri ahlanganiswe nomoya nelanga anciphisa ukukhishwa kwegridi kukonke ngo-5-15% kuye ngokuxutshwa kwegridi namaphethini okuphakelwa. Kodwa-ke, amabhethri ashajwa kusukela ekuphehleni kukaphethiloli we-fossil futhi akhishwe kamuva awakunciphisi ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni{4}}engeza ukulahlekelwa okuncane okuvela-okuhamba kahle kokuya nokubuya (ngokujwayelekile okungu-85-}90%). Inani lokunciphisa ukungcola livela ekuvumeleni ukungena kwamandla avuselelekayo aphezulu, ukunciphisa ukuncishiswa kwamandla ahlanzekile, kanye nokugwema isidingo sokugcina iziqongo zikaphethiloli wezinsalela zisebenza ngendlela engafanele ekukhipheni okuphansi. Amabhethri okukhiqiza ahlanganisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni evela ezimayini, ukucutshungulwa, kanye nokwakhiwa-ngokuvamile u-50-100 kg CO₂ nge-kWh yomthamo kodwa umjikelezo wokuphila ubonisa ukuthi lokhu kukhishwa okuhlanganisiwe kutholakala phakathi neminyaka engu-1-2 yokusebenza lapho amabhethri esusa ukukhiqizwa kwezinsalela.
Indlela eya Phambili: Ukwenza Isitoreji Sebhethri Sisebenze
Igebe eliphakathi kwamandla angokomqondo wesitoreji sebhethri nokusebenza okusebenzayo lihlala likhulu. Sinobuchwepheshe bokusebenzisa amakhulukhulu amagigawathi kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo. Ukuthi siyakwenza yini lokho kuncike ekuxazululeni izinkinga ezingezona ezobuchwephesha.
Lulanisa izinqubo zokuxhumanisa: Amaphrojekthi akufanele alinde iminyaka engu-3-5 ukuze kugunyazwe uxhumano lwegridi. Izidingo zokuxhumanisa okujwayelekile, izifundo zeqoqo ezihlola amaphrojekthi amaningi ngasikhathi sinye, kanye nezisebenzi ezanele zama-opharetha wegridi ukuze zicubungule izinhlelo zokusebenza zinganciphisa izikhathi zesikhathi phakathi.
Misa izindinganiso ezicacile zokuphepha: Imiphakathi enqaba amaphrojekthi ebhethri ayinangqondo-isabela kuzinhlaka zokuphepha ezinganele. Ukwamukelwa okuyisibopho kwamazinga e-NFPA 855 kanye ne-UL 9540A, ukuhlolwa okuvamile-kwenkampani yangaphandle, kanye nokubikwa kwezigameko ezingafihli kuzobhekana nokukhathazeka okusemthethweni kuyilapho kuvimbela ukumiswa okumisa wonke amaphrojekthi kungakhathaliseki ikhwalithi yedizayini.
Yakha amaketanga okuphakelwa kwasekhaya: Ukunciphisa ukuthembela ezimbiweni eziqinile kudinga ukwamukela ukuthi izimayini zinomthelela kwezemvelo. Izinqumo zezimvume kufanele zikale izindleko zemvelo zezimayini ze-lithium ezintsha ngokuqhathanisa nezindleko zemvelo zokuqhubeka nokusetshenziswa kukaphethiloli wezinto ezimbiwa phansi{1}}ukuqhathanisa okuvuna kakhulu ukumba izimayini uma kwenziwa ngokuzibophezela.
Ukuguqula imithetho yemakethe: Vumela amabhethri ukuthi anqwabelanise ukusakazwa kwemali engenayo, anxephezele{0}}izinsiza eziphendula ngokushesha ngevelu ezinikezayo, futhi udale izakhiwo zemakethe eziqaphela izinzuzo zokuguquguquka zesitoreji. Abaningi abasebenzisa igridi basaphatha amabhethri njengokungathi angenye nje ijeneretha esikhundleni somthombo ohluke kakhulu.
Tshala imali-ekugcinweni kwesikhathi eside kwe-R&D: Amabhethri-amane axazulula izinkinga ezibalulekile kodwa hhayi zonke izinkinga. Uxhaso lokucwaninga ngamabhethri{2}}ensimbi omoya, amabhethri agelezayo, umoya ocindezelwe, indawo yokugcina eshisayo, nobunye ubuchwepheshe obungahlinzeka ngokukhishwa kwamahora angu-8-100 ngezindleko ezincintisanayo kungashintsha izinketho zokususa ikhabhoni ejulile.
Igunya futhi uxhase ngengqalasizinda yokuvuselela kabusha: Ukulinda ukugaywa kabusha ukuze kube nenzuzo ngokwakho kungasishiya sinenkinga enkulu yokulahlwa kweminyaka eyi-10-15. Imithetho eyandisiwe yesibopho somkhiqizi kanye nokutshalwa kabusha kwengqalasizinda okugaywe kabusha manje kungavimbela izinhlekelele zemvelo ezizayo ngenkathi kwakhiwa umthombo wasekhaya wezinto zebhethri.
Iqiniso elikhungathekisayo ukuthi isitoreji samandla ebhethri simele inqubekelaphambili emangalisayo ekufezeni imigomo yesimo sezulu kuyilapho sihlala singanele ngendlela edumazayo ukufeza leyo migomo kuphela. Sizodinga amabhethri kanye{1}}nobude besikhathi sokulondoloza kanye nokunwetshwa kokudlulisela kanye nokuvumelana nezimo kanye nokuphehla komoya okuqinile{2}okuncane. Abagqugquzeli besitoreji abethula amabhethri njengechashazi elisiliva babukela phansi ukwethembeka lapho ukulinganiselwa kubonakala. Abagxeki abalungisa izehlakalo zokuphepha noma ukukhathazeka kokuthengwa kwempahla bayaphuthelwa ukuthi lezi zinkinga zinezixazululo uma sikhetha ukuzilandela.
Ukushintsha kwegridi okwenzekayo njengamanje-amagigawathi angu-12.3 esitoreji angezwe ngonyaka odlule, okubikezelwa ukukhula okungama-25% ngo-2025-kubi, kuyabiza, futhi ngezinye izikhathi kuyingozi. Kuyadingeka futhi. Umbuzo wawungelona neze ukuthi isitoreji sebhethri sibalulekile yini. Ukuthi singayisebenzisa yini ngokushesha ngokwanele ngenkathi sixazulula izinselele zokuphepha, uchungechunge lokunikezela, kanye nokuhlanganisa okuhambisana nakanjani nokukala okusheshayo kobuchwepheshe.
I-Gateway Energy Storage ishile isonto lonke. Kepha ama-megawatt ayi-12,300 omthamo webhethri afakwe ngo-2024 asebenza ngaphandle kwesigameko. I-Moss Landing yaphuma endaweni. Kodwa i-California igweme ukucisha ugesi phakathi namagagasi okushisa ngenxa yokuthi amabhethri aphuma lapho isidingo sikhuphuka futhi ukuphuma kwelanga kwehla ekushoneni kwelanga. Ukwehluleka kusifundisa lapho amasistimu adinga ukuthuthukiswa. Impumelelo ifakazela ukuthi umqondo oyisisekelo uyasebenza.
Isitoreji samandla ebhethri akusona isixazululo esiphelele sokususa ikhabhoni kugridi. Kuyisixazululo sezinkinga ezithile-okumatanisa ukukhiqiza okuvuselelekayo nokufunwa phakathi kwamahora wonke, okushintsha iziqongo zezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi ezingasebenzi kahle, ukuhlinzeka ngezinsizakalo zokusimama kwegridi ngokushesha kunanoma iyiphi enye indlela{2}}eba phakathi kwezinkinga eziphuthuma kakhulu esibhekana nazo. Ukulungisa lezo ziqephu kuvula izindlela zokuxazulula izinkinga ezinzima ezilandelayo.
Ikesi elithembekile lokugcinwa kwebhethri alidingi ukufuna ukuphelela. Kudinga ukuvuma-isaphulelo sohwebo, ukuzibophezela ekuthuthukisweni okuqhubekayo, kanye nokubona leyo nqubekelaphambili ekhuphukayo efinyelela kubhithi yegridi ekhishwa ikhabhoni elinde ubuchwepheshe obuphelele obungase bungaze bufike. Sisebenzisa amathuluzi angcono kakhulu atholakalayo namuhla kuyilapho sithuthukisa amathuluzi angcono wakusasa. Lokho akulungile. Kuyiqiniso.
Okuthathwayo Okubalulekile
Isitoreji sebhethri sixazulula ukungafani kwesikhashana phakathi kokuphehlwa kwamandla avuselelekayo kanye nesidingo sikagesi, sivumela ukungena kwegridi okuvuselelekayo okungu-40-60% ngobuchwepheshe bamanje besikhathi samahora amane
Ezomnotho zishintshe kakhulu-izindleko ze-lithium-zehle zisuka ku-$1,200 zaya ku-$139 nge-kilowatt-ngehora kusukela ngo-2010, okwenza izindleko zokulondoloza{7}}ziqhudelane nezitshalo zegesi yemvelo ezihamba phambili ezimakethe eziningi.
Izingozi zokuphepha zingokoqobo kodwa ziyalawuleka-amasistimu esimanje ahlanganisa ukuvikelwa-kwezinga leseli, ukuphathwa kokushisa, kanye nokutholwa ngokushesha ukuthi ukufakwa okudala bekungekho, nakuba izigameko eziphezulu{2}}zidala ukukhathazeka okusemthethweni komphakathi okudinga ukuba sobala kunokuxoshwa.
Ukugxiliswa kwe-Supply chain e-China nasemazweni akhethiwe kudala ubungozi bezwe kanye nokuguquguquka kwentengo, okudinga ukuhlukahluka kokuhlinzeka, ingqalasizinda yokugaya kabusha, nokwamukela ukuhwebelana kwezezimayini zasekhaya{0}}
Izinselele zokuhlanganisa igridi{0}}ukubambezeleka kokuxhumanisa, ukusebenza kwe-inverter, imikhawulo yemithetho yemakethe{1}}ukusetshenziswa kancane kancane njengezinkinga zobuchwepheshe, ezidinga ukuguqulwa kokulawula kanye nokumiswa
Amabhethri-amahora amane aphatha imijikelezo yansuku zonke kodwa awakwazi ukunikeza isitoreji sesizini noma{1}}ikhophi yasenqolobaneni yezinsuku eziningi, okusho ukuthi amagridi angu-100% avuselelekayo adinga ubuchwepheshe obuhambisanayo{3}}njengokugcina isikhathi eside{3}}noma ukukhiqiza i-carbon ephansi{4}okuqinile
Ingqalasizinda yokuvuselela ibhethri kufanele ikhule ngokushesha-ngamazinga okubuyisela amanje angu-5% kuphela kanye namakhulu ezinkulungwane zamathani afinyelela esiphethweni-se{3}}sempilo phakathi neminyaka eyi-15, izinhlelo zokuqoqwa nokucubungula izakhiwo manje zivimbela izinkinga zemvelo zesikhathi esizayo.
Imithombo Yedatha
I-US Energy Information Administration - Umbiko Wezengezo Zesitoreji Samandla 2024
I-International Energy Agency - Igridi{1}}I-Scale Battery Storage Market Analysis 2024
I-BloombergNEF - Inhlolovo Yentengo Yebhethri yango-2023-2024
I-California Independent System Operator - Inverter-Isisekelo Sombiko Wokusebenza Kwensiza Ephreli 2024
I-Western Electricity Coordinating Council - Ukuhlaziywa Komcimbi Wesistimu Yesitoreji Samandla Ebhethri 2022
I-National Fire Protection Association - I-NFPA 855 Standards Development
I-Clean Air Task Force - Ucwaningo Lwezimfuneko Zesitoreji Samandla Avuselelekayo